(TALLINN, ESTONIA) – Russia could experience sudden political upheaval, with revolution potentially arriving “overnight”, according to the head of Estonia’s intelligence service.
Kaupo Rosin, Director General of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, said Russia is in “a very bad place” and that internal pressures are mounting on the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin as the war in Ukraine grinds on.
“If something changes in Russia, then it will happen in a very rapid manner and we will all be surprised. It will be an overnight thing if it ever happens,” Rosin said in an exclusive interview with The Telegraph.
Rosin said Russian society is bracing for a new wave of mobilisation, with widespread expectation that the Kremlin will announce another call up.
“What we see is that in Russian society, everybody knows that a mobilization will come. There is a lot of talk about it. Everybody knows somebody who works in the military who said that it will come,” Rosin said.
He added that this expectation could have the effect of making society “somehow make peace with the idea”, which would provide the Kremlin with another incentive to proceed.
“The system is ready. We haven’t seen any decision. Now that could mean that the Kremlin is testing the waters by measuring the reaction among Russian society to such a move, one which almost certainly would have major consequences were they to undertake it,” he said.
Rosin also called for abandoning euphemisms such as hybrid warfare and instead describing Putin’s escalating campaign of sabotage and subversion across Europe as state sponsored terrorism.
Elite Divisions
On how the Russian elite views the war, Rosin said Putin expresses confidence that “victory will come at one point”, but that those around him may not share this conviction.
“I’m not sure if people around Putin are as convinced. I think the voices which urge him to maybe reconsider the situation are becoming stronger and stronger,” Rosin said.
He said Putin faces only bad options, with each decision carrying different risks. Continuing the war carries the risk that “with the heavy losses and the economic situation, the internal problems mount that might have at some point in the future an impact on his political future”.
Rosin added: “If people around him come to the conclusion that it is better to continue without him.”
The Estonian intelligence chief said the war has been leveraged by Putin as a mechanism of greater control, serious enough to justify repressive measures but not serious enough to threaten him directly.
“If he stops, that has the risk for him that he will be shown as a weak person. But I think objectively Russia is in a very bad place at the moment and many people understand this in Russia, especially people in the economic field and some of the oligarchs,” Rosin said.
“So I’m sure they have serious discussions. The question is what impact does this have on Putin’s decision-making?”
Mobilisation Fears
More than 113 Russians crossed into Georgia via the Upper Lars checkpoint last week amid growing fears that the Kremlin is preparing to announce a new mobilisation wave, according to Politico.
The spike in border crossings comes as the Kremlin undertakes increasingly aggressive recruitment measures, expands its data collection for military reserves and broadens the mandate for the National Guard.
Kyiv states that Russia plans to mobilise 600,000 recruits over 2026 and 2027, with 300,000 to be called up this year and another 300,000 next year.
Deadly Strikes on Kyiv
The assessment comes as Ukraine suffers one of the deadliest waves of raids of the entire conflict, with new jet powered drones wreaking havoc on the capital.
At least 54 people have lost their lives in Kyiv in recent days, the exact same figure as the entire month of July. The worst strike saw a minimum of 37 people killed in the past five days when a Russian drone hit a depot storing weapons at 8:10 p.m. local time on Friday in the village of Myla near Bucha on the city outskirts.
The strike caused shells, mines and drones to detonate, triggering a blast that damaged nearby properties, including a care home for the elderly and disabled.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the storage site should not have been there and an investigation had been launched into “terrible negligence” on the part of those who stored explosives next to people.
“Those who allowed this to happen must be held accountable for their decisions,” Zelenskyy said.
It is the second such tragedy in a month, following an ammunition depot explosion in the Kyiv suburb of Vyshneve which left 22 people dead.
Jet Powered Drone Threat
Russia has shifted tactics, launching constant peacetime launches of several jet powered drones at a time, timed to make air raids last as long as possible over Kyiv. Residents have spent more than 12 hours under air raid alert on some days.
The overground metro stations do not operate during air raids due to the risk of Russia striking civilian transport, leaving people stranded for hours. One commuter said his daily journey has been extended from one hour to three hours.
Ukraine had become proficient at shooting down previous models of Russian Shahed drones, but the jet powered models can travel three times as fast. Russia can now produce approximately 3,000 every month, with production increasing.
Between June and July, Russia increased its use of jet powered Shahed drones by five times. In August, it launched a thousand more than in July.
Port Strikes
Russia has launched a major new assault on Ukraine’s ability to trade through the Black Sea, striking not just ports and warehouses but also commercial ships using them.
Russia struck 28 civilian vessels and killed 21 people in the month to 20th July. Around 90 per cent of grain and sunflower shipments leave from Odesa and neighbouring harbours of Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi.
The new Banderol missile, a mixture between a missile and a drone, has turned the Black Sea coast into almost a no go zone for cargo ships. It entered serial production at the end of last month, is cheaper than many missiles and faster than many drones, carrying a 114 kg high explosive fragmentation warhead. They are often launched from Russian occupied Crimea.
EU Tanker Interception
EU forces boarded the suspected Russian shadow fleet oil tanker MV Sun in the Mediterranean for flag verification over the weekend. According to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, the operation followed suspicions that the vessel was sailing under a false flag.
Modi Confronts Putin
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi confronted Putin about the war in Ukraine at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit in Kyrgyzstan.
“Every day the war continues, humanity is in essence pushed one step backwards. While every step towards peace gives all of humanity real hope for peace. We need to move from an endless war to the end of war,” Modi said.
Modi still referred to Putin as his “friend”, but he remains one of the dictator’s only allies to openly contest the conflict.
China Nuclear Stance
Finnish President Alexander Stubb said China will stop Russia going nuclear if the occasion arises.
“I had the foreign minister of China visiting me this summer and I raised the issue and he said, ‘We will never allow it to happen’, and I think that’s a pretty good deterrent,” Stubb said.
Stubb also said fixating on a nuclear attack or an attack on NATO soil plays into Russia’s hands.
Leipzig Drone Attack
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is preparing to officially blame Russia for the attempted drone attack at Leipzig Airport on 4th August, according to sources cited by Politico and SonntagsZeitung.
A drone containing explosives was discovered at the airport on that date. On the same day, a second drone possibly collided with a DHL cargo plane. Days later, a third drone was found at the same airport.
German officials have said it will not be enough to expel diplomats or close the Russia House in Berlin. Tougher sanctions or greater arms deliveries to Ukraine are expected.
Peace Talks Paused
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced on Friday that peace negotiations with Ukraine are on a “deep pause”. Peskov told reporters that attention was going on gains on the front line.
Zelenskyy said: “For now, unfortunately, all the intel, both ours and our partners, and all the signals from Russia indicate that the Russian leader personally wants more war.”
Fedorov’s New Defence Fund
Former Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov is fielding investment from venture capitalists, private investors and US tech companies to create a fund that would create weapons companies and manage companies to develop new weapons.
Fedorov has also started work as an unpaid consultant to the Italian defence minister, helping Italy develop more modern warfare technologies.
Musk Opposes Deep Strikes
Three sources have told the Kyiv Independent that Elon Musk does not believe allowing Ukraine to use Starlink for deep strikes inside Russia would help bring the war to an end.
Propagandist Earnings
An investigation by independent Russian media outlet Vertska has revealed the earnings of top Kremlin propagandists. The outlet analysed the earnings of 63 propagandists, whose collective income amounted to 3 billion rubles a year (£25.6 million; $33.5 million; €30.7 million).
Dmitry Simes, a Russian American pundit who previously worked as an official foreign policy adviser to Richard Nixon, earns some 833,000 pounds (£833,000; $1.09 million; €1 million) annually for his role as co-host of the state run Channel One show Bolshaya Igra.
Those operating closest to the front line often reap the lowest rewards. Mariana Naumova, a former teenage powerlifting prodigy sanctioned by Kyiv, can expect to earn some 77,000 pounds (£77,000; $101,000; €92,500).
Textbooks Destroyed
Russian strikes have destroyed more than 12 million books, including millions of textbooks intended for school children returning to their desks. One plant on the outskirts of Kyiv that was destroyed was in the process of delivering 1.3 million copies of textbooks. In the last two months, Russian forces have attacked at least nine publishing companies, many of which specialise in children’s books.
Putin’s Orca Remarks
Russian media have highlighted bizarre remarks made by Putin last week in which he compared the war in Ukraine to orcas feeding on polar bears, describing it as an illustration of the food chain. No known case of an orca consuming a polar bear has ever been recorded. Russian media have speculated that the remarks might relate to AI generated videos on social media.
Ratko Mladić Dies
Ratko Mladić, the former military leader of the Bosnian Serbs, has died aged 84 in prison in The Hague. He was serving a life sentence for genocide and crimes against humanity, having masterminded the Srebrenica massacre in 1995 when Bosnian Serb forces murdered more than 8,000 Muslim men and boys.
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