(WASHINGTON) – A shift in tone among some prominent MAGA figures towards support for Ukraine may be driven by a strategy to merge the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, according to analysis from Jake Broe, a commentator on Ukraine.
The pivot, exemplified by commentator Laura Loomer’s recent pro-Ukraine posts and attacks on figures like Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens, coincides with revelations about her own Ukrainian ancestry. The Kyiv Independent reported Loomer’s great-grandfather was born in Vinnytsia, Ukraine.
Mario Nawfal, a commentator with significant social media reach who works for Elon Musk, stated that voices he respects are warning that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and neoconservatives are attempting to link the Ukraine and Iran conflicts.
General Ben Hodges concurred that the linkage is logical, noting Iran and Russia have used the Caspian Sea for years to bypass sanctions and provide mutual support. He argued helping Ukraine defeat Russia first would isolate Iran and North Korea, sending a message of deterrence to China.
Public support for the military action against Iran initiated by former President Donald Trump stands at a low 33 percent. Analysts note this core base previously championed Trump as a peace candidate who would end “forever wars” but now backs escalation in the Middle East, while 66 percent of Americans oppose the conflict.
A Gallup poll indicates American sympathy for Israel has declined, with 41 percent sympathising more with Palestinians compared to 36 percent with Israelis. Merging the unpopular Iran conflict with support for Ukraine, which holds approximately 57 percent public approval, could politically benefit both Trump and Israel.
This geopolitical calculation played out publicly as President Zelenskyy met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham. The two leaders are known to share a mutual dislike, and Netanyahu faces likely defeat in Israel’s 27 October elections, with prediction markets favouring Gadi Eisenkot to become the next prime minister.
The industrial aspect of this strategy is also becoming clear. The Pentagon has called for cheaper long-range strike weapons with testing required in three months, following the near depletion of US missile stocks in strikes against Iran that failed to topple the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The US defence industry remains years behind Ukraine’s wartime drone manufacturing capacity. While the Pentagon allocated $1.1 billion (£850 million/€1.02 billion) for a programme aiming to produce 200,000 drones, Ukraine is set to manufacture 7 million this year. Should the conflict freeze or Russia face outright defeat, Ukraine’s drone factories could pivot to supply the United States and Israel, potentially enabling a high-intensity resumption of hostilities against Iran within six months.
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