(KYIV) – Ukraine’s 40-day deep strike operation against Russian territory has achieved significant strategic objectives, forcing the Kremlin to defend a vastly expanded array of targets while exposing vulnerabilities in Russia’s critical infrastructure, according to military analysts.
The campaign, which began in late June, has disrupted fuel supplies, increased pressure on the Russian economy and delivered a psychological shock to populations in major cities including Moscow and St Petersburg. Ukrainian forces have consistently targeted oil refineries, logistics hubs and communication lines across Russian territory and in occupied Crimea.
Military observers note that the operation has successfully deconstructed Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s narrative that the war remains distant from Russian households. The growing sense of insecurity among the Russian public represents a significant political achievement for Kyiv.
Russian forces remain active on the front lines, with their summer offensive continuing across the Donetsk oblast. However, analysts report that Russian advances have been smaller than during the same period last year, with no significant territorial gains achieved.
The Ukrainian campaign has stretched Russian resources by forcing the dispersal of air defence systems away from the front lines to protect energy and logistics infrastructure. This redeployment has imposed substantial costs on Moscow’s military capabilities.
Fuel shortages have worsened across Russia, with Putin publicly acknowledging for the first time that Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure were creating problems. The Russian dictator attempted to portray the situation as manageable, maintaining that military operations remained unaffected.
Ukrainian officials view the 40-day operation as the closing of an initial phase rather than the conclusion of a broader strategy. The cumulative impact of sustained pressure, they argue, has already produced measurable results in slowing Russia’s offensive and straining its economy.
The campaign has exposed gaps in Russia’s ability to protect critical infrastructure, damaging the Kremlin’s image both domestically and internationally. The repeated success of Ukrainian drones and missiles in reaching cities such as Moscow and St Petersburg has fundamentally challenged perceptions of security within Russia.
Analysts suggest Putin’s options are narrowing significantly. A return to negotiations would require the Kremlin to accept compromises that the Russian dictator has consistently refused to consider. Conversely, escalation through mass mobilisation carries substantial political risks, as demonstrated by the public backlash following the October 2022 partial mobilisation announcement.
Russian military recruitment faces significant challenges. Contract soldiers receive approximately 8 million roubles annually (approximately $80,000 USD, £63,000 GBP), which has encouraged mercenary enlistment but primarily drawn from eastern regions where the population is less connected to Moscow and St Petersburg. Prison recruitment has also been exhausted, leaving the Kremlin with difficult choices about future manpower requirements.
Military experts question Russia’s capacity for meaningful military reorganisation. The Russian military’s top-heavy command structure, which requires decisions to be approved at the highest levels, has proven resistant to reform. Junior commanders lack the initiative to adapt to battlefield conditions, and training for new recruits has been reduced to one or two weeks – far below the year required to adequately prepare a tank commander.
The professional Russian army was largely destroyed during the first six months of the war and has been backfilled with conscripts and mercenaries. This degradation has contributed to Ukraine’s growing battlefield momentum, with the smaller Ukrainian military demonstrating remarkable resilience over nearly five years of conflict.
Looking ahead, analysts expect Russia to intensify asymmetric warfare against European allies through sabotage and interference operations, seeking to decrease Western support for Ukraine. Winter poses particular challenges, with Russia likely to escalate attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure as it has in previous years.
European support for Ukraine is expected to remain robust, with allies viewing the outcome of the war as decisive for the future of European security architecture. However, uncertainty surrounds the position of the Trump administration, which Putin may view as a potential window of opportunity.
Trump’s administration has demonstrated shifting positions regarding negotiations and the course of the war. While Ukraine has shown both the will and capacity to inflict economic costs on Russia, the unpredictability of American policy remains a concern for Kyiv.
Putin’s best opportunity for a favourable settlement likely passed during direct negotiations with the United States, when he was in a stronger position. Ukraine’s recent successes have made it difficult for the Russian dictator to return to the negotiating table with maximalist demands, and accepting anything less would prove challenging to sell to a domestic population that has endured significant economic and humanitarian costs over nearly five years.
The battlefield situation remains fluid, with Putin expected to seek windows of opportunity to decrease support for Ukraine and regain momentum. However, analysts note that Russia’s capacity to continue fighting exists alongside increasingly constrained strategic options, with winter potentially proving decisive for both sides.
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