(UPPER LARS, GEORGIA) – Long queues of Russians have reappeared at the sole major border crossing with Georgia amid reports of growing fears over a possible new military mobilisation. The scenes at Upper Lars, a high-altitude checkpoint around 1,500 metres above sea level, have drawn comparisons with the chaotic exodus of September 2022.
Journalist and author Jason Corcoran, speaking on TVP World Talks, described the current surge in passenger traffic as striking and carrying a strong sense of déjà vu. In 2022, after the partial mobilisation announced on 21st September, tens of thousands of Russian men of military age crossed into Georgia and Armenia, destinations reachable without a foreign passport. Many left cars, bicycles and pushchairs behind and walked with luggage. Yandex maps and drone footage at the time showed roughly 3,000 vehicles stuck in a 10-kilometre tailback lasting 48 hours. Corcoran said the present situation is not as severe, yet chaos is evident.
Part of the increase is seasonal. Russians who once holidayed in Crimea now travel to Georgia instead. A recent mudslide and flooding have also caused delays at the crossing. Georgian authorities in Tbilisi have denied any major surge, but the numbers remain notable.
Around one million people left Russia in 2022, many of them military-age men. Some later returned after struggling to find work or secure Western visas in places such as Tbilisi and Yerevan. Life there was difficult, compounded by residual tensions from Russia’s occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia since the 2008 war. Those returnees now face the prospect of leaving again as mobilisation talk intensifies.
Conditions at the front in Ukraine remain harsh, yet some Russians stay. Corcoran noted that those who remain do so despite knowing a formal call-up could close escape routes. Western governments face a balancing act. The European Union suspended its visa facilitation agreement with Russia in 2023, and Germany has paused its humanitarian visa scheme. Corcoran argued this approach risks missing a strategic opportunity: every skilled Russian who escapes is one fewer the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin can deploy. At the same time, some Russian communities abroad continue to hold pro-war marches, complicating public attitudes in host countries.
New Russian legislation allows authorities to designate citizens as terrorists or extremists, freeze bank accounts, seize property and restrict access to the Gosuslugi digital portal used for passports and official documents. Relatives can also be affected. Corcoran described the measures as an attempt to buy silence and create a form of civic death for those abroad. Exiles are therefore squeezed from both sides: by the Kremlin and by increasing Western caution.
The Russian opposition in exile remains fragmented. After the murder of Alexei Navalny in a polar penal colony, no single figure has unified the diaspora. Figures such as Ilya Yashin, Yulia Navalnaya and Vladimir Kara-Murza continue efforts to build an alternative vision, yet internal divisions persist. Navalny himself shifted over time, eventually stating that Crimea and all territory seized since 2014 belong to Ukraine and must be returned.
Corcoran suggested that economic pressures, including fuel shortages and attacks on logistics, may slowly increase receptiveness to change among those still inside Russia. He pointed to regional tensions in places such as Bashkortostan and Tatarstan, where local resources are redirected to fund the war, and to the Far East, where Chinese economic influence is growing. A full reckoning with the Soviet past and the costs of imperial ambition, he argued, remains necessary.
The discussion was hosted by Jonasz Rewiński on TVP World.
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