(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Four years after Russia launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine expecting to capture Kyiv within three days, the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s original plan lies in ruins, with Ukraine still standing and the conflict having reshaped European security.
In February 2022, Russian leadership anticipated the Ukrainian government would collapse quickly, with the capital Kyiv expected to fall within approximately 72 hours. The Kremlin’s plan involved removing Ukrainian leadership and installing a puppet government loyal to Moscow.
The confidence was so pronounced that within hours of the invasion, a Russian state media outlet published a premature victory article by mistake, describing Ukraine as already defeated and returned to Russian influence. The article appeared while fighting was still ongoing around Kyiv.
Many Russian soldiers had been told civilians would welcome them and that the Ukrainian army would be easily defeated. Instead, they encountered organised resistance from the outset. Civilians built defensive positions, volunteers joined territorial defence units, and the Ukrainian military rapidly moved to defend major cities.
The invasion plan relied heavily on speed. Capturing the capital early was intended to cause political collapse. Russian armoured vehicles were observed driving through the residential district of Obolon, just 8.8 kilometres north of Kyiv’s parliament, presidential office and city centre.
Russia deployed not only regular army units but also internal law enforcement units such as Rosgvardiya and OMON, normally used for riot control, policing and suppressing protests inside Russia. These units were poorly suited for frontline combat. Their early presence suggested Russian leadership anticipated the need to control cities, guard infrastructure and manage civilian unrest rather than fight a prolonged war.
A key element of the plan involved capturing Hostomel Airport near Kyiv so that transport aircraft could bring large numbers of troops directly into the city. Ukrainian forces damaged the runway and fought intense battles around the airport, preventing Russia from using it as intended.
Simultaneously, a 64 kilometre long column advanced toward Kyiv from the north. The column slowed and eventually stopped due to repeated attacks and ambushes by Ukrainian forces using mobile missile systems, artillery and drones, as well as logistics problems and mechanical failures. By March 2022, Russian forces were repelled from northern Ukraine, ending the Kremlin’s ambitions of capturing the capital.
The military invasion was accompanied by a major information campaign. Russian state structures, pro-Kremlin media outlets and associated online networks launched a wide range of disinformation and manipulation campaigns. Their goal was to shape narratives favourable to the Kremlin, discredit Ukraine, sow panic among civilians and influence public opinion internationally.
False claims circulated stating that President Zelenskyy had left Kyiv. He recorded a video in the city confirming he remained there. Other widely shared stories included allegations about secret biological weapons laboratories and claims that the war was staged or fabricated. A long running narrative portrayed Ukraine as a Nazi state, a claim promoted in Russian messaging since at least 2010. Additional recurring claims portrayed Ukraine as irredeemably corrupt, described President Zelenskyy as an illegitimate leader, framed the conflict as a NATO proxy war, and later argued that the European Union was deliberately fuelling the fighting.
Ukraine responded by publishing frequent official updates and quickly correcting false information with support from allies. During the early stages of the war, the United States and European countries actively assisted Ukraine in countering Russian information aggression. The European Union banned the Kremlin’s media machine from broadcasting within member states.
During the occupation of several Ukrainian towns and cities, evidence emerged of widespread attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure. In Bucha in early April 2022, Ukrainian forces discovered mass graves and civilians who had been killed while Russian troops controlled the area. Satellite imagery later confirmed bodies had been present during the occupation.
In Mariupol on 16th March 2022, a theatre clearly marked as sheltering children was bombed, despite being used by hundreds of civilians seeking safety. Russian officials issued multiple and often contradictory explanations spread by pro-Kremlin online networks, including claims the scenes were staged, caused by Ukrainian forces or fabricated by Western governments. Investigations, witness testimony and imagery analysis contradicted these claims and strengthened international support for Ukraine.
On 14th April 2022, Ukraine struck the Russian cruiser Moskva with anti-ship missiles, causing it to sink. Russian authorities first claimed the loss was caused by an onboard fire and ammunition explosion, later suggested severe weather during towing, and avoided acknowledging a Ukrainian attack. Years later, statements in a Russian court briefly acknowledged the ship had been hit by Ukrainian missiles before officials again downplayed that admission. The ship had served as the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, and its loss had symbolic and operational importance. After the Moskva incident, additional missile and drone attacks damaged multiple Russian vessels and bases, leading the fleet to withdraw many ships away from Crimea and reduce operations in parts of the Black Sea.
After defending Kyiv, Ukraine launched counter offensives. In September 2022, Ukrainian forces advanced rapidly in the Kharkiv region, recapturing more than 3,000 square kilometres of territory. In November 2022, Russian troops withdrew from Kherson after supply routes across the Dnipro River became difficult to maintain.
Ukraine also began striking targets far behind the front line. Ukrainian operations used long range drones and special forces to hit air bases, logistics hubs and military equipment inside Russian territory. One notable operation, often referred to as Operation Spider Web, targeted Russian strategic aviation bases and damaged or destroyed long range bomber aircraft used to launch missile attacks against Ukrainian cities. The operation demonstrated increasing Ukrainian reach and forced Russia to disperse aircraft and strengthen air defences deeper inside its territory.
Ukraine adapted to the situation by integrating civilian volunteers, commercial drone technology and open source intelligence into military and information efforts. Authorities also began warning audiences about likely disinformation campaigns before they appeared, which helped maintain public awareness and international support.
The invasion intended to remove Ukrainian sovereignty quickly, but instead strengthened national unity and international cooperation supporting Ukraine. As battlefield progress has slowed, Moscow has increasingly focused on targeting energy infrastructure and the civilian population inside Ukraine, as well as on creating an illusion of military progress.
The initial plan to capture Kyiv within days failed, and the conflict became a prolonged war shaped by both military resistance and information resilience. Moscow’s early expectations of rapid victory did not materialise, and Ukraine continues to adapt rapidly in both conventional warfare and information warfare.
The analysis was published by EUvsDisinfo on 24th February 2026, marking four years since the full scale invasion began.
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