(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Pressure is mounting on the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin as divisions emerge within the Kremlin over the handling of Ukraine’s long range strike campaign, according to defence analysts.
The assessment comes as Ukraine’s targeted attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and military logistics continue to inflict significant economic damage, exposing vulnerabilities in Russia’s air defence network and forcing difficult decisions on the Russian leadership.
In a Frontline interview with Times Radio, Bill Browder, a prominent critic of the Russian regime, said Putin has effectively backed himself into a corner. The Russian dictator has failed to achieve victory in Ukraine while facing growing anger from his own population over the war’s mounting costs.
“Putin is kind of in a corner that he’s backed himself into,” Browder said. “He’s been unable to win in Ukraine. Ukraine is now causing this huge economic damage and this huge military damage to Russia. He’s not making any significant progress. He’s got the Russian people angry with him.”
Browder warned that Putin may seek to escalate the conflict dramatically, potentially through actions against NATO member states, as a means of changing the strategic balance. He noted that such actions would likely follow the Kremlin’s established pattern of plausible deniability and calculated ambiguity.
“He’s really into plausible deniability. He’s into vague and half-hearted things which make everybody scratch their head and wonder, well, that was pretty terrible. But does it cross the line? Does it not?” Browder said.
The analyst argued that Russia is already conducting hostile operations against Western nations, citing recent incidents including drones over Danish and Swedish military facilities, German critical infrastructure, and US air bases in the United Kingdom. He also referenced the Russian spy ship Yantar surveying undersea cables off the British and Irish coasts.
“We are at war with Russia. And it’s no longer hybrid. It’s real,” Browder stated.
John Lough, head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategy Centre, said Ukraine has made a calculated decision to bring the war home to ordinary Russians through targeted strikes on infrastructure and military-linked businesses, rather than civilian casualties.
Speaking on Frontline, Lough cited the example of Wildberries, a major Russian e-commerce platform comparable to Amazon, which has been struck by Ukrainian forces. The company, which serves tens of millions of users and supports the war effort through military goods distribution, has suffered significant disruption.
“Ukrainians have made the calculation that by bringing the war home to increasing numbers of Russians, that’s not by killing innocent civilians by the way, it’s by inconveniencing people,” Lough said.
He noted that Ukraine’s campaign against Russian oil refineries has created a nationwide fuel shortage in a country that is one of the world’s largest energy exporters. Russia has been forced to suspend diesel exports, contributing to global price pressures.
Lough said the economic strain on Russia is becoming increasingly severe, with inflation rising, investment falling, and technological sanctions taking effect. However, he cautioned that the pressure has not yet reached a breaking point.
“There are indications that within the Russian system, within the Kremlin, there probably have divisions over this issue,” Lough said. “If the Russian authorities have to react suddenly to a new crisis, they may overreach, they may miscalculate, they may have two or three things going on at the same time, they can’t cope with, and things could then get out of control.”
The analysts also pointed to Putin’s recent visit to the Kuril Islands north of Japan as a signal of Russian vulnerability. Philip Ingram, a former senior British military intelligence officer, noted that Russia has stripped air defences from the islands to protect Crimea and Moscow, leaving them exposed.
Speaking on Frontline, Ingram said Japan has been developing military capabilities, including converting a helicopter carrier into an F-35 platform and creating a marine brigade, that would be suitable for retaking the disputed territory.
“I believe if we see a Southeast Asian pivot and the likes of the Chinese going into Taiwan, Kim Jong-un and North Korea trying something into South Korea, Japan will take the opportunity to get its Kuril islands back,” Ingram said. “That would happen when Russia’s at its weakest. Arguably, it’s at its weakest now.”
The interview also featured insights from a former member of a leading Ukrainian drone regiment, identified as Dimco Julenko, who described the integration of drone reconnaissance with artillery strikes against Russian targets.
Julenko recounted an operation near Dropilia in Donetsk Oblast where his unit identified a building housing Russian drone operators. The information was passed to HIMARS artillery units, which destroyed the target within 30 minutes.
“In a matter of like 30 minutes, they were gone. And it was especially great to hear that HIMARS missile flying right over our heads and then landing into the screen that you have,” Julenko said.
He said Russian forces continue to suffer extraordinary losses, with his unit alone observing at least 20 Russian soldiers killed daily in a limited section of the front.
“The battlefield losses that Russia takes are extremely significant. They are stupidly big and extreme,” Julenko said. “What kind of baffled me the most is that Russians are not stopping. They see that kind of a huge loss of life each and every day but they are not stopping.”
Be First to Comment