(LONDON) – Ukraine’s strategic strikes on Russian logistics hubs and economic infrastructure are steadily eroding public support for the war by bringing its consequences directly to ordinary Russians, financier and Magnitsky Justice Campaign founder Bill Browder has said.
Speaking to The Sun, Browder argued that attacks on facilities such as the Wildberries warehouse network combine military, economic and psychological warfare in a way that strikes at the heart of Russia’s financial system and daily life.
“Russians for the most part don’t care about the civilian casualties in Ukraine. They’re saying, ‘Yeah, whatever. As long as our life is fine, Putin can conduct this war,'” Browder said. “But if all of a sudden they can no longer order goods to be delivered tomorrow, it affects their life.”
The Wildberries network serves as a logistics hub that distributes military goods across the country, providing a clear military rationale for targeting it. However, Browder said the economic impact is equally significant. The company carries approximately $15 billion (£11.8 billion, €13.7 billion) in debt from major Russian banks, meaning strikes on its facilities also harm the banking system and businesses connected to it.
Browder identified the psychological dimension as the most important factor. “I think bringing the war home to the Russians is probably the most important thing because that really does create pressure on Putin and on the government to justify the war,” he said. “The less justification they have, the less sacrifice Russians are going to want to make.”
The financier compared the current situation to the fuel shortages and internet disruptions that have already affected Moscow and St Petersburg. “They have to stand in line for three or four hours in a lot of different situations. This is bringing the war home to the Russian people, to the very cynical Russian people who don’t care about killing Ukrainians, and all of a sudden they’re being inconvenienced,” he said.
Browder noted that the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin can no longer rely on the pretence of democratic legitimacy. “In the past they put on a pantomime to say that there’s an election coming up,” he said. “Now he can’t even afford to do this pantomime. Any small indication that he’s not doing a perfect job, that everything is not going as well as planned, is potentially very lethal for him.”
With Russia’s economy under strain, Browder said the Kremlin’s ability to manage public anger is severely limited. “It used to be that he could subdue the anger with money. He could pay people money. He could give people better benefits when there was money flowing around. But there’s no money flowing around,” he said. “At this point, the only thing that he could control is fear, repression.”
Browder predicted that repression would intensify, potentially including Soviet style exit visa restrictions. “These are the types of things that happened in the Soviet Union. These are things that happen in repressive regimes. And there’s no reason to think that Putin is not going to really tighten the screws on the Russian people going forward,” he said.
The financier dismissed the likelihood of organised political opposition emerging. “I don’t believe that there’s any political organisation in Russia that can truly challenge Putin. No organised political situation because Putin is out there sniffing around very aggressively with all of his organs of repression looking for anybody who doesn’t agree with him,” he said.
Browder said the most likely scenario for change would be a mass disorganised uprising, similar to the Arab Spring. “The Arab Spring started in Tunisia when a fruit seller set himself on fire and all of a sudden the country’s government was overthrown,” he said. “These are very hard things to predict. What you can predict is the level of anger, and the level of anger of course is rising.”
On the war’s trajectory, Browder suggested it may end quietly rather than through formal negotiations. “I think this war is going to end in the way that the Korean War ended,” he said. “Putin’s never going to declare defeat. He’s never going to compromise, but eventually the war just dies down. Not in some dramatic sit down with a treaty and a declaration of peace, but in just a quiet, unresolved way where the countries are all still at war, but they’re not doing much.”
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