(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Russia has been left without any naval presence in the Mediterranean for the first time in more than a decade, according to NATO officials, as pressure mounts on the Kremlin’s shadow fleet and its ability to project power beyond the Black Sea.
The absence of Russian warships and submarines from the Mediterranean marks a significant strategic shift. Russia established a permanent Mediterranean task force in 2013, typically maintaining between 10 and 15 vessels in the region. That presence surged in 2022 and 2024, but currently stands at zero.
The development comes as NATO intensifies efforts to target the shadow fleet used to transport illicit oil that funds the Russian war effort. The Russian Navy has been forced to divert resources to protect these vessels, leaving no capacity for Mediterranean deployments.
“One NATO official told me they’re in an absolute shambles,” said Tom Cotterill, defence editor at The Telegraph.
The loss of the Syrian naval base at Tartus has compounded the problem. While a memorandum of understanding is being drafted between Russia and Syria, Damascus now controls the facility. Russia is reportedly considering Libya as an alternative base location.
Ukraine has also inflicted significant damage on the Russian fleet. More than 30 vessels have been damaged or sunk, along with several submarines. The remaining ships face logistical difficulties, including a lack of oil tankers for refuelling at sea. Some vessels have been forced to conduct dangerous hull to hull refuelling in the North Sea using a repair ship not designed for the task.
Without Mediterranean coverage, Russia cannot project power towards the Middle East or support its Africa Corps deployments. The gap between the Baltic and Black Sea fleets remains unsecured.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s 59th Unmanned Systems Brigade, also known as Signum, continues to target the M18 motorway, nicknamed the “highway of death.” The route runs from Russia through Mariupol and down to Crimea, serving as a primary supply line.
On its Instagram account, the brigade claims to have significantly hampered the supply of personnel, ammunition and fuel to Russian forces, turning what was once a safe route into a trap. The artery is now under Ukrainian fire control, with trucks and trains being hit regularly.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed a drone attack on an oil refinery in Perm, 1,500 kilometres from Ukraine. “We continue to use our long range capabilities to return the consequences of the war to where it came from,” Zelenskyy said.
A massive drone attack was also reported in Crimea overnight. The Tavria power station near Simferopol was hit by a swarm of jet powered Ukrainian drones. Fifteen explosions and multiple fires were reported, along with power outages in Sevastopol, Dzhankoy, Kerch and Simferopol.
On the other side of the Kerch Strait, a power station in Taman, Russia, was also struck. The facility supplies electricity to Crimea through a power bridge with a peak capacity of over 800 megawatts, more than half of the peninsula’s maximum demand.
In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have damaged all major power generation facilities in Crimea, including the Balaklava thermal power plant, the Tavria thermal power plant and the Saki combined heat and power plant.
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