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Russian Missile Production Exceeds Plans as Ukraine Faces Barrage

(TOBOLSK, TYUMEN REGION, RUSSIA) – Ukrainian drones have struck the ZapSibNeftekhim petrochemical complex in Tobolsk, western Siberia, approximately 2,200 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, marking one of the deepest strikes into Russian territory since the start of the war.

Tyumen Region Governor Alexander Moor confirmed several drones crashed on the premises of an industrial enterprise, causing a fire. He did not disclose the facility’s name, but reports from the site identified it as ZapSibNeftekhim, one of Russia’s key petrochemical complexes owned by SIBUR. No casualties were officially reported.

ZapSibNeftekhim processes raw materials derived from oil and gas production in western Siberia. The complex can produce approximately 2.5 million tonnes of basic polymers per year, roughly 1.5 million tonnes of polyethylene and 1 million tonnes of polypropylene. These materials are used in packaging, pipes, construction, industry, and the manufacture of various products.

The facility is located deep within Russia. The distance from Tobolsk to the Ukrainian border is approximately 2,200 kilometres. The drone war has now reached western Siberia, far beyond border regions or areas a few hundred kilometres from the front.

SIBUR continues to expand production in Tobolsk. In July the company reported that readiness of a new polypropylene production complex had reached 89 per cent. The launch is scheduled for 2027, with the project set to add another 570,000 tonnes of polypropylene per year.

Separately, Ukrainian drones attacked Nizhnekamsk in Tatarstan, where one of Russia’s largest oil refining hubs is located. Ukraine’s General Staff stated the primary target was the Taneko oil refinery, owned by Tatneft, where a fire was recorded after the strike. The refinery processes up to 8.7 million tonnes of oil per year. The local industrial zone, including Taneko, TAIF NK, and Nizhnekamskneftekhim, has been targeted regularly in recent months.

In Belgorod, regional authorities reported one of the heaviest attacks of the war. Sixteen Ukrainian drones struck the city, with only three intercepted. Damage was recorded at 29 apartment buildings and five private houses, along with administrative and social buildings, commercial properties, and vehicles. Fires broke out in two multistorey buildings and one private house was completely destroyed. The Avtograd shopping centre was seriously damaged. According to an OSINT analysis by the publication Astro, three damaged multistorey buildings are located several blocks from the FSB directorate for the Belgorod region, while another is approximately 600 metres from the Belgorod thermal power plant.

On the diplomatic and military supply front, Turkey has requested permission from the United States to transfer American MLRS systems and ammunition to Kyiv. The package includes 12 M270 MLRS units, a tracked version of HIMARS with 12 launch tubes instead of six. Turkey also plans to supply 2,524 M26 cluster munitions with a range of up to 30 kilometres, 47,000 cluster shells of 203mm calibre, and 70 tactical ATACMS missiles. The total value of the proposed transfer is $256 million (approximately £199 million or €233 million).

The ATACMS missiles have a range of 165 to 300 kilometres and are likely to be older, shorter range variants of the type Ukraine has already used. Such missiles are equipped with cluster warheads and could theoretically be used for strikes against Russian ballistic missile launchers, primarily Iskander systems and North Korean KN 23 missiles.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russian defence industry production of main missile types is exceeding planned targets. The commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, known as Madyar, stated Russian forces can currently launch up to 77 ballistic missiles simultaneously but plan to increase this figure to 200, indicating a growth in the number of launch platforms.

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