(MOSCOW) – On a recent episode of Russian state television, military analyst Mikhail Khodaryonok told Olga Skabeyeva’s programme that potential Ukrainian ballistic missiles would radically change the character of the armed conflict. Host Anastasia Noritsyna examined the exchange in a Zaxid.net analysis.
Khodaryonok explained that most current strikes on Russian territory come from unmanned aerial vehicles, which can be countered by anti aircraft missile systems, small calibre anti aircraft artillery, interceptor drones and combat helicopters. A combat helicopter can sometimes destroy several dozen drones in a single sortie. Cruise missiles such as Storm Shadow or SCALP already require proper surface to air missile systems. Ballistic missiles would present still greater problems for Russian air defences and would move the fighting into a different league.
He asked why Russia should continue what he called a bloody and idiotic adventure when it is already clear to ordinary citizens and military experts that the situation will only worsen. The programme offered no clear answer.
While Ukrainian drones have struck Russian rear targets from the ports of Ust Luga and Novorossiysk to strategic depots and air defence sites, the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin travelled to the Far East, more than 10,000 kilometres from the front. He inspected Pacific Fleet exercises near Yuzhno Sakhalinsk and visited the Kuril Islands for the first time in person. Japan’s foreign ministry issued a strong protest, stating that the islands are historically and under international law Japanese territory.
From that distance the Russian dictator threatened to respond in kind to European actions against Russian commercial vessels, describing possible seizures of Russian ships as piracy and promising mirror measures against ships of unfriendly states, including in any waters deemed necessary. Russian television presenters expressed enthusiasm for the tough language, claiming it would force Europe, the United States and especially Britain to reconsider. Figures were cited of 379 ships under unfriendly flags, including 273 dry cargo vessels and 71 tankers, of which 26 flew the British flag and nine the French.
In reality, Belgium, Britain, France and Sweden have already detained at least nine vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet since the start of the year. European missions now have authority to stop and inspect suspicious tankers. The European Union’s 21st sanctions package formally allows the seizure and sale of Russian oil from arrested vessels. European diplomatic chief Kaja Kallas stated the aim is to cut the funds financing the war.
At the same time fuel shortages continue. In Abkhazia queues last up to eight hours. In Moscow drivers report closed stations, diesel only at some sites, and prices of 134 roubles a litre for 92 octane diesel (approximately 1.58 US dollars or 1.17 pounds sterling). One motorist described a confrontation in which another driver drew a knife after being refused permission to jump the queue. Ordinary Russians are increasingly asking what the purpose of the conflict is beyond power and money, recalling the near total destruction of Novorossiysk in the 1940s and questioning whether the same fate awaits cities now.
The Russian Ministry of Defence released imagery of Shahed drones with the caption that winter would bring a freeze. Ukrainian forces replied that they would warm themselves by the fires of Russian oil refineries. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has spoken of a joint plan with Western partners combining economic, sanctions and military pressure, with the explicit aim of transferring the war onto Russian territory through continued drone strikes.
The on air discussion and related footage were analysed by Zaxid.net.
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