(MOSCOW, RUSSIA) – Russia is facing a growing manpower crisis in its war against Ukraine, with casualties outpacing recruitment by thousands each month, according to analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Russian forces are suffering between 30,000 and 34,000 casualties monthly, while recruitment brings in roughly 27,000 new contract soldiers. This leaves a monthly deficit of approximately 3,000 troops. This year alone, Russia has suffered more than 225,000 casualties while recruiting 221,000 contract soldiers.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that Ukrainian defence intelligence confirms Russia is preparing for mobilisation in the autumn, following parliamentary elections scheduled for September. He said internal Russian documents support this assessment.
Russia’s UN ambassador has denied any mobilisation plans, stating from New York, “Don’t worry about mobilisation in Russia. We don’t need mass mobilisation right now. It’s not planned or expected as far as I know.”
Despite these denials, heavy traffic has been reported at the Verkhny Lars border crossing between Russia and Georgia. The same crossing saw thousands of Russian men flee during the 2022 partial mobilisation.
Brian Whitmore, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, assessed the likelihood of full mobilisation at around 50 percent. He noted that any announcement would likely come after the State Duma elections in late September.
“The cost of a full mobilisation in terms of the potential social explosion it could cause and the disruptions in the civilian labour force would be significant,” Whitmore said.
Russia is currently using financial incentives, prison recruits and North Korean troops to fill the gap. Whitmore described these as “band aids” rather than sustainable solutions.
“The Russian economy is running into problems right now. It’s on the verge of a potential banking crisis,” he added.
Ivan Chuvilyaev, who works for the organisation Get Lost, which helps Russian men avoid military service, reports a dramatic increase in requests for assistance.
“The number of people who are forced to sign the contract is rising every day and every week,” Chuvilyaev said. “For the last 10 days, we got 10 times more replies to our chatbot.”
Chuvilyaev said his organisation expects to help more than 1,000 people in August alone. The men seeking help do not want to fight because they do not want to die or become criminals, he explained.
“Everybody wanted just to be a free peaceful man and not to collaborate with Putin, not to collaborate with war criminals,” he said.
The pressure on Russian men has intensified in recent months. Local authorities face extreme pressure from the Kremlin to deliver more recruits, with police becoming the primary instrument of coercion.
“It is not the first, not the second and not the third wave of panic in Russian society during this war,” Chuvilyaev said of the border queues. “It is quite a common state but it is a panic.”
Whitmore advised watching for signs of preparation in official Russian statements. “It would be kind of playing up the need for sacrifices to be made in the national interest,” he said.
He added, “I don’t expect to see much action on this until late September at the earliest and probably into October. I think there’s a less than 50 percent chance we’re going to have a full mobilisation.”
Instead, Whitmore predicts continued “stealth mobilisation” with increased coercion on Russian men to enlist. The pressure campaign looks set to continue regardless of any formal announcement.
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