(LONDON) – NATO has expressed growing concern over an increase in airspace incursions linked to the war in Ukraine, with Russian systems accounting for the majority of violations.
According to analysis by Sky News military analyst Michael Clarke on 17th August 2026, NATO recorded over 70 significant incursions last year, many concentrated around airports and military bases. The alliance believes Russian forces are conducting surveillance operations by sending drones off course towards military installations. NATO reports that this activity has increased by approximately 30 percent this year.
Clarke identified three principal hot spots. Romania has experienced around 33 incursions in the past 12 months, partly because Russian forces are targeting the Danube port used by Ukraine, and drones sometimes end up in Romanian territory.
The forests of eastern Poland represent a second hot spot, where debris from ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones is often discovered days or weeks after objects disappear from radar. The Baltic states, particularly Estonia and Latvia, form the third area of concern. Last year, three MiG-31 aircraft entered Estonian airspace through the Gulf of Finland and remained there for a significant period.
The largest single intrusion occurred on 9th September last year when 20 drones entered Polish airspace. Some were shot down, some went off course, and others were not intercepted and ran out of fuel. Clarke described the incident as embarrassing for NATO, which did not handle the situation well.
Clarke outlined three motivations behind the Russian activity. The first is to expose NATO defences by triggering radar and air defence systems, allowing Russian forces to observe responses. The second is political, aiming to normalise the pressure so that NATO becomes accustomed to incursions and might not notice a major operation immediately. The third is intimidation, signalling to European nations that supporting Ukraine carries consequences.
NATO has stated it will adopt more muscular rules of engagement, though it has not specified how these will change. The alliance is also discussing the creation of a drone wall from Finland to Romania, comprising radars, electronic jamming equipment and interceptors. Clarke noted that a complete drone wall along the entire border is not feasible, given the distance of approximately 1,000 miles from Finland to Romania, plus an additional 800 miles along the Finland Russia border.
However, partial drone walls around northern regions, Poland, the Baltic states and towards the Black Sea are plausible. Clarke cited the Ukrainian Sting interceptor as an example of the technology that could be deployed, describing it as cheap, fast and agile.
The fundamental challenge, Clarke concluded, is that any defensive system can be overwhelmed by sheer numbers. In the era of cheap and rapid drone production, defence must be backed by deterrence. The problem for European NATO members is that it remains unclear what form that deterrence would take.
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