(DONETSK OBLAST, UKRAINE) – Ukraine has launched the first phase of a counteroffensive in the eastern Donetsk region, with General Biletsky, commander of the Third Army Corps, confirming that operations are underway under the codename Vivaldi. “Good news is coming, but for now, our actions require silence,” Biletsky said, stressing the need for operational security.
The operation, which appears to have been months in the making, represents one of the most impressive displays of operational security by either side in the war. Very little footage has emerged to verify claims, aside from a short video from the Third Army Corps. Russian military bloggers have acknowledged Ukrainian advances, with one warning that these forces are not “scared conscripts, but battle-hardened mechanised units.”
Biletsky stated that Ukrainian forces conducted search and strike missions, eliminating Russian infiltration pockets around Nova Kalifa, Yurova, Korovial Yar and Oleksandrifka. He added that territory marked in blue on military maps has been liberated and is now under Ukrainian control. According to Biletsky, Ukrainian forces eliminated 1,500 Russian soldiers, destroyed 12,000 Russian drones and several hundred armoured vehicles. They cleared 75 square kilometres of territory and liberated more than 10 kilometres.
The cleared versus liberated distinction is significant. Ukrainian forces were clearing territory technically under Ukrainian control but compromised by Russian infiltrators. As Biletsky noted, having small numbers of Russian soldiers in basements 10 kilometres behind front lines is a problem requiring deliberate infantry clearance operations.
Russian sources have responded with concern. Rybar, a Russian military blogger, warned that contradictory information and local commanders’ attempts to conceal the real situation could lead to new losses and create gaps in defences. “Tactical and not critically significant failures can escalate into problems of a strategic nature due to the misassessment of the situation and systematic lies in reports to higher command,” Rybar said.
Another Russian blogger, Veteran Notes, said fighting near Lyman is taking place with increased intensity, suggesting the operation is ongoing and what is being learned about is weeks or months old. Vagner Kotenok, another Russian milblogger, noted that Ukraine is conducting an offensive near Kreminna and Lyman in a state of information blackout. “The enemy forces advancing near Kreminna and Lyman in mechanised groups are experienced and battle-hardened. These are not frightened, mobilised recruits or disoriented conscripts, but rather highly motivated soldiers from the Azov battalion,” he said, referring to the unit as “Nazis” in typical Russian propaganda fashion.
The Third Army Corps is a well-equipped, well-trained and highly motivated unit. A recent change in command structure places the Third Army Corps in charge of one sector and the Azov Corps in charge of another. Ukraine announced two newly revamped military groupings within the Donetsk region called Centre and Azov. The Centre grouping will be headed by Brigadier General Biletsky, commander of Ukraine’s Third Army Corps, while the Azov grouping is expected to be led by Brigadier General Reis Porpo, commander of the First Corps of the National Guard of Ukraine Azov.
Robert Madar, commander of the unmanned systems forces, said: “This is exactly what smart war is. The newly created groupings. The age of network-centric warfare. Total synchronisation with the unmanned systems forces. The shortest sensor to shooter chain.” The shortened chain and more direct support from unmanned systems forces to these two groupings will make the area even more lethal for Russia.
In other developments, President Trump announced an energy ceasefire in Ukraine, claiming Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian energy targets and Russia has agreed to do likewise. The statement appeared to catch both Russia and Ukraine off guard. Russian markets briefly rose before confusion set in. President Zelensky later addressed the proposal, saying: “There is now a strong US proposal for a mutual halt to strikes on critical infrastructure. If this can become the first de-escalatory step, a step towards ending Russian strikes on our critical infrastructure and our strikes in response, then Ukraine is ready to support it.”
Zelensky added that Russia feels the pressure from Ukrainian precision strikes on its war economy, but no genuine desire to end the war has been observed. “If our American partners can ensure that Russia is genuinely ready to stop this war aimed at destroying life and to do so for real and for the long term, Ukraine will take its own de-escalatory steps,” he said.
Unfortunately, Russia is unlikely to agree to such a proposal. Both sides are feeling the impact of energy strikes differently. In Ukraine, as winter approaches, strikes on electrical infrastructure and substations will primarily cause pain for Ukrainian citizens. In Russia, the impact trickles down to consumers through refinery strikes and fuel shortages. Continued strikes were reported in both directions last night, suggesting the ceasefire proposal remains aspirational.
Footage of the counteroffensive operations was released by the Third Army Corps. The engagement occurred in the Lyman direction, Donetsk Oblast.
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