(KYIV) – Russia will spend 17 trillion roubles (approximately $202 billion or £151 billion) on its military in 2027, a 27 per cent increase on current spending and a 206 percent rise from its pre war budget of $65 billion in 2021, according to figures released this week.
The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin signed a decree expanding the army to 2.44 million personnel, including 1.5 million active duty troops, shortly after the conclusion of Russia’s State Duma elections. The expansion raises questions about how the Kremlin intends to fill its ranks when recruitment of contract soldiers continues to fall short. Analysts suggest mobilisation is imminent.
The spending surge comes as Russia’s budget deficit widens and oil revenues decline. Putin has further restricted disclosures about Russian energy production and refining, banning media from publishing data on the nature, price, sellers, buyers, routes and destinations of energy exports. The decree, ostensibly aimed at making Western sanctions harder to enforce, effectively conceals data that would illustrate the damage inflicted by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining capacity.
Ukrainian forces struck two fuel depots in Krasnodar overnight, targeting wholesale diesel and gasoline storage. Open source intelligence geolocated video footage of the first strike, which showed explosions and fires. The second depot, containing approximately 11 fuel storage tanks, was also hit. Satellite imagery confirmed at least one tank ignited.
The strikes form part of a sustained Ukrainian campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. US President Donald Trump has urged Kyiv to ease attacks on Russian refineries, claiming they are responsible for rising global diesel prices. Ukrainian officials have responded that any energy ceasefire must be reciprocal. Ukraine has been open to such an arrangement for over a year, provided Russia ceases strikes on Ukrainian energy targets. Moscow has not agreed.
Diesel prices in the United States currently average $6.50 per gallon, a figure Trump promised would be $2 during his election campaign. The rise follows the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the bombing of Saudi Arabia’s East West pipeline by pro Iranian Iraqi militias, and the Houthi capture of the Bab al Mandab Strait. Trump has blamed Ukraine for the increase, telling reporters he spoke to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and urged him to “take it easy on the refineries”. Zelenskyy’s office has not confirmed the conversation.
In Russia, petrol shortages are worsening. Residents of Nizhny Novgorod report queues of four to five hours at filling stations, with no guarantee of supply. One motorist, speaking in a video circulating on social media, said: “Before the election, we were somehow managing to get by. Right now, the lines are four to five hours long and there’s no guarantee you’ll get gas. It’s just a nightmare.” The shortages suggest the Kremlin prioritised civilian fuel supplies ahead of voting and has since redirected reserves to the military.
A Russian Tu-95 strategic bomber crashed in Russia’s Amur Oblast during a training flight, killing six crew members. One survivor was hospitalised. Reports indicate a triple engine failure shortly after takeoff. The aircraft, valued at approximately $30 million (£22.5 million), was carrying live munitions when it came down. Video footage showed secondary explosions as search and rescue teams arrived. The loss reduces Russia’s fleet of strategic bombers capable of striking Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi has entered its third phase, with the Third Army Corps reporting the liberation of three settlements and the capture of the large settlement of Nove. Commander Andriy Biletsky said Ukrainian forces regained 51 square kilometres of territory and inflicted over 2,000 Russian casualties during the stage. More than 250 Russian servicemen, including officers, pilots and artillerymen, surrendered. “The cinematic ‘Russians never surrender’ has in practice turned into entire units surrendering in full,” Biletsky said. The operation employed converted Soviet APCs as kamikaze unmanned ground vehicles and deception tactics that convinced Russian forces the main assault would come along the Siverskyi Donets axis.
The Third Army Corps has also released footage of new tactics involving ground robots equipped with grenade launchers. The UGVs blast holes in Russian shelters before detonating inside, clearing positions for Ukrainian infantry.
Russia has escalated attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure in response to battlefield losses. Kyiv endured over 14 hours of air raid sirens as jet powered drones struck the capital throughout the day and night. A food warehouse burned to the ground. A children’s art centre was destroyed. The Dobrobut Medical Center, a private hospital in central Kyiv, was hit in broad daylight. Andy Hunder, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, filmed the aftermath. “During broad daylight, the Russians hit this hospital,” he said. “We’re seeing a clear trend. In the last fortnight, they’ve hit warehouses where pharmaceuticals and medicines are being stored. A total of $84 million (£63 million) of pharmaceuticals have been destroyed.”
A Russian Guran drone struck the National Academy of Sciences, a century old institution in central Kyiv. Staff climbed onto window ledges to escape the flames, reminiscent of the September 11 attacks in New York. One person died and seven were severely injured. Students still sat an examination the same day, relocating to the basement bomb shelter.
President Zelenskyy said: “Every Russian act of terror results in casualties that could have been prevented if pressure on Russia had finally become total. The world must understand that terrorists will keep going if they are not stopped here in Ukraine.”
Ukraine’s air defences have achieved a sixth publicly confirmed interception of a Russian Guran 5 jet drone, which cruises at 500 to 600 kilometres per hour. The interceptor appears to be a new model, making it the fourth type capable of downing the weapon. Ukraine currently relies on F-16 fighter jets and air to air missiles to counter the threat.
Firepoint, a Ukrainian weapons manufacturer, is developing ballistic missiles capable of reaching Moscow. CEO Iryna Terekh said the short range Fire 7, with a range of 300 kilometres, is ready and undergoing codification. The longer range system, with a range of 850 kilometres, is in final testing. “I’m probably looking forward to ballistic missiles flying towards Moscow more than all Ukrainians put together,” she said. “We have target dates and we’re planning to do this by the end of autumn.”
Russian military blogger Maxim Kalashnikov acknowledged the threat. “If the enemy gets ballistic missiles and the 5.9 can reach Moscow all the way to the central part of the city,” he said. “I would even correct you here, not if, but when.”
In Switzerland, 70 percent of voters rejected a neutrality initiative that would have ended sanctions against Russia. The proposal would have barred Switzerland from imposing sanctions unless approved by the UN Security Council, where Russia holds a veto.
Norway will allocate 2.6 million Norwegian kroner (approximately $240,000 or £180,000) for humanitarian programmes in Ukraine. Belgium will transfer three F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of the year, according to President Zelenskyy.
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