(KYIV) – A sustained campaign of Ukrainian drone strikes has knocked out more than 45 percent of Russia’s total oil refining capacity, according to industry data, deepening a fuel crisis in major Russian cities and disrupting global energy markets.
Overnight, Ukrainian drones successfully struck two major refineries in the Russian cities of Ufa and Samara. In Samara, the Kuibyshev refinery was hit, with videos on social media showing drone impacts and subsequent fires. The plant had only recently restarted after being targeted in June. Both primary crude processing units at the facility, which account for 53 percent of its capacity, were reportedly on fire.
The strike in Ufa, in the Republic of Bashkortostan, was confirmed by Ukrainian officials, though details remain scarce. This follows a pattern of systematic attacks that has seen 14 percent of Russia’s total refining capacity taken offline in September alone. The operations are part of a broader strategy to degrade Russia’s war economy.
The impact is being felt far beyond the refinery gates. In the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, a Ukrainian operation has now struck its 300th vessel, a significant milestone in a campaign that began on 6th June. The strikes are targeting not only fuel tankers but also grain and cargo ships, effectively blockading Russian maritime export routes.
The consequences for Russian exporters are severe. A Russian farmer, in a video circulated online, spoke of the collapse in demand. “For us, it’s like this. And as for wheat, there’s absolutely no demand. I mean, people aren’t even calling or asking around,” he said, adding that his warehouse was full and he was struggling to find a buyer. To circumvent the Black Sea blockade, Russia is reportedly adapting fertiliser and coal terminals in Baltic and Arctic ports to handle grain, a logistical workaround that is expected to triple or quadruple export costs.
The economic strain comes as Russia held its first wartime parliamentary elections. The ruling United Russia party claimed a record majority with 57 percent of the vote. However, independent election monitors reported that turnout was artificially inflated by 17 percent and United Russia’s total was inflated by 23 percent. The actual turnout was closer to 40 percent, with United Russia securing only 35 percent of valid ballots. EU Representative Kaja Kallas stated the vote “marked another major setback for Russian democracy,” adding that “the veneer of democracy is all that remains in Russia.”
Domestic support for the war appears to be waning. The share of Russians donating money or goods to the war effort has fallen to 28 percent in August, down from 42 percent in September of last year, according to the Levada Center. In a sign of growing apprehension, Russian activists are preparing for a potential post-election mobilisation.
On the battlefield, Russia’s territorial gains have slowed dramatically. Analysis from Clement Molin indicates that Russian forces have made a net gain of just 650 square kilometres this year, a sharp decrease from 3,100 square kilometres in 2024 and 1,900 square kilometres two years ago. This is coupled with soaring casualties that are outpacing new recruitment.
Civilian areas continue to bear the brunt of Russian attacks. Overnight strikes killed at least six people and wounded 38 across Ukraine. In Zaporizhzhia, a nine-storey residential building, a university facility and a shopping mall were damaged. In the Lviv and Kharkiv regions, a woman was killed in a drone strike. A pet retailer’s warehouse was also destroyed in the Kyiv region.
In the liberated city of Kherson, Russian forces are targeting food infrastructure. Journalist Zarina Zabrisky reported that a grocery store was hit, part of a consistent strategy to create “another hunger and starvation situation.” She also noted that in the occupied village of Oleshky, residents are being denied exit and are “starving to death,” a situation brought to the attention of the UN and the Pope.
In response to the ongoing threat, Ukraine is innovating its air defences. New footage shows an automated gun turret mounted on a helicopter, being tested to shoot down Russian drones. The “Wild Hornets” unit also announced another successful shootdown of a Russian Guron 5 jet-powered drone, the fifth confirmed kill of this type. These developments are part of efforts to upscale production of drone interceptors before winter.
Politically, German exit polls show the far-right AfD party leading in regional elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with 38 percent of the vote. The Kremlin has welcomed the AfD’s stated desire for dialogue with Russia. The party, which is pro-MAGA and supported Donald Trump in 2024, advocates cutting all military and financial aid to Ukraine.
In the United States, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived for the UN General Assembly and met with President Trump. The meeting was described as cordial, though Trump reportedly lied and rambled. The visit comes as Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 29 per cent, with 68 per cent of Americans disapproving of his performance. Trump also announced a “massive potash deal” with Belarus, a claim immediately refuted by Belarusian President Lukashenko, who stated that all of his country’s potash is already contracted to Russia for the next two years.
President Zelenskyy also met with French President Emmanuel Macron, who reaffirmed France’s support. “Russia strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure threaten to deprive millions of families of heating and electricity. France will stand by Ukraine to face the winter,” Macron posted online. Zelenskyy concluded his visit by meeting a delegation of US senators, including Mark Kelly and Richard Blumenthal.
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