(KYIV) – Ukrainian drones have successfully destroyed three military aircraft and three military helicopters at a military air base in Rostov-on-Don, Russia. The operation, which targeted a facility frequently used to bomb Ukrainian cities, is seen as a significant blow to Russia’s military capabilities and a move that saves innocent lives.
The good news of the strike comes amidst a backdrop of escalating tensions, with growing warnings from influential leaders and intelligence services, including the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), about the potential for a direct Russian military attack on a NATO country. These are not limited to the “hybrid attacks” that have become a serious problem, but a full-scale military assault.
Today, another border crossing, Yahoudin, in the Odesa region, was attacked by a Russian drone for the second time in a week. This marks the first such attack during the full-scale war and is a worrisome signal, as it occurred on the Polish border. Throughout the day, nervous comments have been issued by the Polish prime minister, German officials, and various intelligence agencies.
From a Ukrainian perspective, a Russian attack on a NATO country now appears more likely than ever. The Kremlin is perceived as being in its weakest and poorest state, yet its irrational obsession with world dominance, the destruction of NATO, and the occupation of Ukraine and former Soviet republics could lead it to go “all-in.” Recent actions, such as attacks on border crossings with Moldova and Poland and targeting a train carrying EU diplomats, including a former CIA head and the former British prime minister, point to a dangerous escalation.
The term “hybrid attacks” is becoming outdated, as we are now witnessing Russian drones in the airports of Leipzig and Russian missiles travelling 100 kilometres deep inside Polish airspace. This is a form of psychological technique used by some leaders to calm themselves, hoping their normally bias will protect them. However, Russia is irrational, obsessed, and extremely evil. The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may sense chaos within the NATO alliance, partly caused by comments from Donald Trump, and see it as a perfect opportunity to attack.
Potential targets discussed include the Suwalki Gap or Polish access to the sea, with Russia’s Kaliningrad region and Belarus, which has sent troops to the area, serving as launch points. A worrying signal is the construction of six additional military hospitals in the St. Petersburg area, close to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden, and Finland. Similar news about military hospitals on the border with Ukraine was a clear signal of impending aggression.
Poland, a large country not previously considered a potential target, has seen its Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sikorski, speak fiercely, demonstrating the preparedness of the Polish people. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has stated that Poland is prepared to stand for every inch of its territory, and the country has closed the airspace in its eastern part and conducted evacuation training. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, often named by the Kremlin itself as potential targets, are even more endangered due to their lack of strategic depth and their history as part of the USSR.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has commented on the possibility of Russia attacking Germany with drones and missiles. Germany has also closed its consulate in St. Petersburg without prior announcement. French President Emmanuel Macron is holding an unusual meeting with party leaders, including the opposition, to discuss important topics. The ISW openly states that a potential attack on the Baltic region is likely.
Ukrainian military sources suggest that Russians from Kaliningrad and Belarus may try to cut Polish access to the sea and the Suwalki Gap. While the Russian dictator is weak, a cornered animal is very dangerous. Economists and military observers even in Russia suggest a quick attack with drones or missiles on a NATO country could give Putin more control over his population, an excuse for conscription, and an opportunity to nationalise private bank deposits.
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