(LIMAN, DONETSK OBLAST) – Ukrainian forces are extending their gains in eastern Ukraine, with Russian military bloggers acknowledging that territory captured since spring in the Lyman direction has been lost.
Ukraine announced the completion of phase one of Operation Vivaldi a few days ago. The operation, conducted primarily by Ukraine’s Third Army Corps under General Bitzky, liberated 10 square kilometres and cleared 75 kilometres of territory in the Lyman direction. It is the first of four phases. Operational security surrounding the operation has been notably tight, with little footage released showing objective control of recaptured areas.
General Bitzky said the strategic task of defending Donetsk and Luhansk means Ukrainian forces are not fighting simply for tens, hundreds or thousands of kilometres, but for advantageous defensive lines. The operation is intended to bring Ukrainian forces to those lines.
The operation is a shaping operation. Ukraine does not currently have the resources to clear Russia from all occupied territories, and attempting such an operation would not be successful. However, offensive operations still have a place in this war. Russia is not going to stop its offensive operations and will continue throwing soldiers forward for the indefinite future. If that is the case, the objective is to make that as deadly and as costly for Russia as possible. If it currently costs Russia 100 soldiers to take an area, Operation Vivaldi aims to increase that to 150, 200, or even a thousand.
Bitzky said the northern pincer has been defeated and destroyed. He said it is critically important for the defence forces that Russian troops do not have the ability to resume this offensive operation, which is why disrupting Russian rear areas and logistics is particularly important. The failure of Russia’s plan to envelop the fortress cities from northern Donetsk means Russian forces will have to assault the Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka urban areas head on. Assaulting these cities head on is far more painful and costly for them than trying to envelop.
Russia has successfully used envelopment tactics throughout this war. Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Pokrovsk are examples of towns and cities that have fallen to Russian forces via this tactic. Russia is currently attempting envelopment movements around Kostiantynivka after taking heavy casualties in head on assaults. On a larger scale, Russia has had a much harder time doing this. It may have attempted something similar in the opening phases of the full scale war in 2022, but nothing like this has come to fruition from the Russian side. Operation Vivaldi appears focused on cutting off the northern pincer, not just removing Russian forces that have infiltrated, but cutting off the supply line so Russian forces in that direction are forced to move back.
Russian analysts are increasingly acknowledging these losses. Rybar, a Russian media outlet, published a map showing Ukrainian advances significantly further than the Deep State map shows. Deep State is understood to be following a degree of operational security and may not be updating its map with all current information. Rybar reported that in the Lyman direction, the situation remains difficult, with reports periodically emerging of further deterioration north of the city.
Russian mil blogger Donbass Caesar said fighting is already taking place on the Russian side of the Zherebets River, meaning that over the past couple of weeks, everything the Russian armed forces had liberated since the beginning of spring has been lost. Military informant, another Russian war correspondent, said more and more information is emerging about the loss by the Russian armed forces of a significant portion of the bridgehead on the western bank of the Zherebets River and their transition to a defensive posture along the river’s course, although there is currently no visual confirmation.
Visual confirmation has been a key component of this offensive. Russia is not going to publish Ukrainian advances, and neither side is keen to advertise enemy gains. There is evidence that false reporting on the Russian side is horrific, with resources being pulled from one direction to another based on success or failure that does not match reality, demonstrating a clear disconnect between the front lines and the chain of command making decisions.
Russian military blogger Bellarian Silvc said the offensive has been stalled, adding that attempts by Russian officials to conceal the problem are utter foolishness. By all accounts, the Russian high command has hidden the situation, meaning fewer resources are available to soldiers on the front lines to stop, repel or push back the Ukrainian advance.
Footage from the 104th Territorial Defence Brigade’s Saraphim drone unit shows trucks provided by donors being used in frontline operations. The unit operates in several areas from Sumy and Kharkiv into Donetsk. The trucks are fitted with electronic warfare suites, including jammers designed to prevent Russian drones from striking them. Netting is also used, though much of it is worn out closer to the front. It does not make sense to repair netting that far forward. As units move further back, netting is built and repaired. Russia is also incorporating drone netting into key areas of manoeuvre, prioritised over main avenues of approach or main supply routes in both directions. The netting can stop one or more drones before a panel is no longer useful.
The trucks are a lifeline. Soldiers cannot drive directly into forward positions because it gives away their location and because fire intensifies closer to the front line. They must be dropped off some distance back and move through terrain with little cover. They need food, water, batteries, generators and fuel, all of which must go forward. The volume of destroyed vehicles along the roadside is striking, with unmanned ground vehicles, armoured vehicles and pickup trucks destroyed every 50 metres in places.
The Russia sanctions bill passed the House of Representatives with a vote of 262 to 159. The bill passed the Senate overwhelmingly in a bipartisan vote. According to Politico, the vote ends a nearly two year lull in Ukraine assistance from Congress, which had not passed any major Ukraine efforts since the 2024 emergency aid package. The legislation is all but guaranteed to receive Trump’s signature, with a block of time set aside on the official White House schedule on 18th September for a bill signing.
House Minority Leader Jeff outlined why he planned to withhold support for the measure, saying the manner in which the bill has been written does not require the president of the United States to impose sanctions on Russia. He said there are so many loopholes written into the bill that it is very unlikely the sanctions relief contemplated in the legislation will ever see the light of day.
The bill gives the president the option to impose sanctions but does not force him to do so. The sanctions could be very significant if put in place. The pessimistic view is that they may never be utilised. However, it is better to have a tool and not use it than not have the tool at all.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov referred to the law as hellish sanctions and said they would be referred to as a hostile act if actually put into place, and that they would complicate efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. The bill may end up being a bargaining tool. The war as it sits today is going to rely almost entirely on Ukraine’s ability to defend the front lines, protect its cities and conduct deep strikes inside Russia, and then lean heavily on Europe for military and economic defence. The United States has not been there for the last couple of years.
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