(MINSK, BELARUS) – Ukraine is reinforcing its northern border and delivering sharp warnings to Minsk, as Belarus continues to serve as a critical logistical hub for the Kremlin’s grinding war effort despite insisting it will not send soldiers to fight.
Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko told state media that his nation does not want to enter the conflict, describing his own military as highly vulnerable. “We don’t want to fight. Belarus is very vulnerable from a military point of view if Ukraine starts attacking Belarus the way it attacks Russia,” Lukashenko said.
Kyiv immediately dismissed the claim. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pointed to the continued use of Belarusian territory for drone guidance systems that direct Russian attacks into Ukraine. “What’s the point of saying he doesn’t want war? Just take the equipment down. Just shut it down. If he doesn’t do it, we will,” Zelenskyy stated. Shortly after the ultimatum, relay stations inside Belarus that were helping guide Russian drones were reportedly switched off.
Analysts interviewed by DW stress that Lukashenko is not acting independently. “The fact is that Lukashenko has no military sovereignty. He is subordinate to Russia’s interests,” one observer noted. The decision to deactivate the signal repeaters was likely taken only because Russia could not withstand a potential Ukrainian retaliation at this moment, not because Minsk defied Moscow.
Lukashenko remains heavily dependent on the Russian dictator for survival after mass protests nearly toppled him in 2020. That political crisis shattered his legitimacy and allowed the Kremlin to claw him into a tighter embrace. Since then, Belarus has hosted joint military drills, Russian nuclear capable weaponry, and served as a fortified rear area supplying fuel, weapons and strategic depth for Moscow’s offensive.
Despite public promises of peace, Lukashenko has made his loyalties clear. “We are peace loving, but in any situation, we will stand with Russia,” he said.
The regime is acutely aware that joining the hot war could trigger a domestic explosion. Belarusians harbour a deep cultural aversion to warfare, and the army leadership is wary of unrest. Analysts argue that plunging into the conflict would shatter the stability Lukashenko has used to justify 32 years of dictatorial rule.
For Moscow, however, the threat from Belarus is a useful strategic lever even without a ground invasion. Ukraine is forced to station significant forces along the northern border to guard cities previously untouched by the worst of the fighting. This pins down Ukrainian troops and drains resources away from the grinding front lines in the east where Russian forces are failing to achieve breakthroughs.
“Creating a new front, even if it is not an invasion, drains resources from Ukraine,” a DW analyst explained. The psychological and logistical value of a compliant Minsk currently outweighs the chaos of opening a northern front that could destabilise the Lukashenko regime entirely.
NATO is monitoring the hybrid threat closely. The alliance is expected to respond not by direct intervention but by massing more troops and material on the borders of Poland, the Baltic states and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The danger from Belarus is seen less as a direct kinetic invasion and more as a staging ground for drone bases, missile attacks and military signalling that shortens the distance for strikes into Ukraine.
Analysts concluded that while Lukashenko is losing what little room for manoeuvre he once had, he is unlikely to oppose the Russian dictator if a new front is truly demanded. Even if Belarus does not fire the first shot, it has already been functionally integrated into the Russian military’s strategic space.
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