(SEA OF AZOV) – Ukraine has conducted a sustained maritime strike campaign in the Sea of Azov, hitting more than 70 Russian vessels over six days and compelling Moscow to suspend all commercial shipping movements in the strategic body of water.
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukraine opened a new phase in the isolation of Crimea by hunting seaborne fuel tankers. Within five days, 48 Russian vessels were struck, and the tally rose sharply. Ukraine’s military said it hit 21 Russian tankers, bringing the total number of vessels damaged or destroyed across six days to over 70.
Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces have documented the entire operation, releasing nightly video compilations of the strikes. Footage shows individual ships burning on the horizon, with on screen counters tracking each confirmed hit. One compilation runs from ship number 36 through to number 48, while a subsequent release by the unit known as Maar’s Birds shows strikes continuing from ship 49 to ship 75, with the current count standing at 76. Satellite imagery corroborates the damage, revealing tankers ablaze and visible oil slicks spreading across the water.
The operation has been dubbed the Azov chainsaw massacre by observers. It was triggered by a large scale Russian logistic push that commenced on 1 July, when mass loading of tankers began at the ports of Taganrog, Azov, and Rostov on Don. The Kremlin had ordered the inland tanker fleet to divert petrol, diesel, and oil to resupply Crimea in what was intended as a maritime bridge operation. The first vessels departed for Crimea on 5 and 6 July.
However, the ports of Kerch and Feodosia have limited throughput capacity. Each can handle only a few fuel tankers at a time, and unloading a single vessel carrying 7,000 tonnes of fuel normally takes between 8 and 24 hours. The large number of tankers, sent simultaneously, became stationary targets congregated off the Crimean coast, and Ukraine exploited the concentration of vessels.
After six days of severe losses, the Kremlin ordered a halt to all shipping in the Don–Azov channel and closed the Kerch Strait. Maritime grain and fuel transfers across the Sea of Azov have effectively ceased, marking a significant strategic defeat for Russian forces. The area is now being referred to by some commentators as the Maar triangle, where vessels mysteriously disappear and explode.
Analysts suggest Ukraine had previously observed a de facto maritime truce, refraining from striking commercial grain ships or cargo vessels in the Sea of Azov. The concern had been that Russia could retaliate by using submarines to sink civilian shipping bound for the port of Odesa, either through torpedo attacks or by laying mines in shipping lanes. However, Ukraine appears to have calculated that it can now accept that risk, partly because there may be no operational Russian submarines remaining in the Black Sea. Satellite observations of the naval port at Novorossiysk show the submarine holding area has been inactive.
In parallel developments, Reuters reported that the Russian dictator rejected a proposal from his advisers for a frontline ceasefire and is instead preparing for further escalation. The Czech president separately warned that Russia could announce a new wave of mobilisation after the September parliamentary elections. Advisers close to the Russian dictator have urged him to pause the war so Russia can catch up in drone technology, though Ukraine views any ceasefire as a trap that would allow Russia to regenerate its forces.
The head and founder of Firepoint, Denys Shtilerman , stated that Ukraine now has a real chance to destroy Russia in this war for the first time in four years, citing Ukrainian dominance in long range strikes, the forward drone wall, and systematic attacks on logistics. President Zelensky said publicly that Ukraine has put forward proposals to bring peace closer and claimed that sentiment for ending the war is growing even within the Russian dictator’s inner circle.
Ukraine has also intensified strikes on Crimea’s energy infrastructure. At least 60 electrical substations and transformers have been destroyed in recent weeks, according to geolocated data compiled by the Ukraine Control Map project. Among the targets listed is the 110 kilovolt Barov electrical substation, numbered as strike 51. Crimea’s power grid is not expected to be restored until the war concludes.
Strikes on Russian oil infrastructure continued across multiple regions over the week. An oil depot in the city of Azov, near Rostov on Don, was set alight despite protective cages and nets installed over storage tanks. The optical mechanical plant in Azov was also struck, and a defence factory at the site is reportedly on fire. A fuel tank in the Belgorod region was hit, and an oil depot in Tver burned for two days after a drone attack. A large fire was reported near port infrastructure in Taganrog, although the precise target remains unclear.
The Moscow refinery experienced a fire while already offline. Reuters reported that the Saratov refinery, struck three days earlier, has halted all operations. Data circulating among industry analysts suggests that Russian refinery throughput has collapsed to 2.8 million barrels per day, down from 5.1 million in 2022.
Russian petrol output is now covering only around 65 percent of seasonal demand, producing a 35 percent shortfall that has triggered long queues and odd even fuel rationing in several Russian regions. Drivers with licence plates ending in an odd digit are allowed to buy petrol only on odd numbered days, and those with even digits on even numbered days. In the city of Saransk, motorists have been waiting in line for days hoping to secure 20 or 30 litres of fuel. Some Russians are now living in their cars at empty petrol stations, waiting for the next fuel delivery truck to arrive.
The fuel scarcity is threatening Russia’s grain harvest. Farmers in southern agricultural regions face empty pumps and price spikes at the critical moment when combine harvesters need to roll. A reduced harvest would likely prompt Russia to ban food exports, risking hunger in parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
On the battlefield, Russia continues to suffer heavy personnel and vehicle losses without making significant advances. The Magyar’s Birds compilation 51 shows three minutes of Russian soldiers being targeted by drones in open terrain. Ukraine’s drone army is operating with substantial surplus capacity and is even exporting drones to other countries. Ukraine is also developing unmanned ground vehicles for medical evacuations and supply runs to reduce soldier casualties.
Russia launched another wave of ballistic missiles at Kyiv in the early morning, wounding six people. Ukraine was unable to intercept the strikes. Russia’s monthly ballistic missile launches have tripled year on year to nearly 75.
To counter this, Ukraine is developing an indigenous anti ballistic missile system, codenamed Project Freya, with a target cost of 700,000 dollars per interceptor. Eight countries may join the project. President Zelensky described it as a European analogue to the Patriot system, easier to mass produce and less expensive. Zelensky also confirmed that additional PAC 3 interceptors for Patriot systems will be sent to Ukraine under the Pearl initiative, funded by European partners purchasing equipment from the United States.
Regarding diplomatic efforts, US Senator Lindsey Graham announced in Kyiv that an agreement had been reached with the White House on a version of a Russian sanctions bill. Graham said the legislation would provide tools to President Trump to help end the war and could be introduced in Congress within weeks before his sudden death on Sunday.
The announcement drew sharp condemnation from Russian ideologue Alexander Dugin, who described Trump as a senile old man being exploited by cynical manipulators. Russia also restated its maximalist war goals despite the renewed push for peace.
In a related development, the Kremlin confirmed it is in discussions with Turkey over the fate of Russian S 400 missile systems. Turkey originally purchased the systems but now reportedly wishes to return them in favour of acquiring American F 35 jets. Some commentators have suggested Turkey should instead transfer the S400s to Ukraine. Separately, Slovenia pledged an additional 50 million dollars to Ukraine’s Pearl initiative.
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