(ANKARA, TURKEY) – Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory are producing visible fractures in Russian society, from humiliated officials to desperate civilians fighting at petrol stations, while a prominent Russian military commentator has openly acknowledged the effectiveness of Kyiv’s campaign.
President Volodymyr Zelensky and United States President Donald Trump met at a NATO summit in Ankara on 7-8 July, where Trump displayed a markedly positive attitude towards Zelensky. The shift in tone appeared driven by Ukraine’s successful mid-range and long-range strikes, which have caused significant damage to Russian logistics and oil refining infrastructure. Trump, known for favouring winners, now views Zelensky as prevailing in the conflict.
A particular exchange between the two leaders provoked fury in Moscow. Trump recounted that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin had expressed a desire to meet in Moscow. When Trump asked Zelensky whether he would go, the Ukrainian leader replied, “It’s difficult. There are a lot of Ukrainian drones there,” prompting laughter. The quip underscored a reality Russia cannot ignore: Ukrainian drones are flying daily thousands of kilometres into Russian territory, striking refineries and humiliating the Kremlin on the international stage.
Russian Commentator Speaks Candidly
Among the most revealing Russian reactions came from military commentator Yevgeny Golman, described as one of the most prominent voices in Russia alongside the late Yevgeny Prigozhin. Golman will likely “go the Prigozhin way” and be removed from the scene in coming years due to his outspokenness.
Golman addressed his audience with uncharacteristic candour. “Our entire leadership has talked themselves into the corner,” he said. “Grandpa Trump praised Zelensky, said we need to strike deeper.” He acknowledged this represented a significant change in Trump’s tone, noting the American leader had previously been strongly opposed to Zelensky.
Trump’s shift, according to Golman, was directly attributable to the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes. These include attacks on the occupied southern Ukrainian highway of Novaria that destroyed logistics, and deep strikes on Russian oil refineries as far as 2,500 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. “You are winning. I like it. Go deeper,” was how Golman characterised Trump’s message.
Golman warned his audience to “brace yourselves and double down. Hard times are ahead.” He then pivoted to a broader critique of Russian governance. “Stop lying to the president. Can someone with actual balls walk and tell the truth about what the f is happening in this country,” he asked.
The commentator Artur Rehi observed a cultural tendency within Russia to blame mid-level officials and politicians while absolving the supreme leader. He questioned this narrative, stating that truth-tellers who approach the dictator are typically sacked. “Putin doesn’t like anyone breaking his mental image about the reality,” the transcript notes. Those who do are either dismissed or, if too important to be let go, end up “flying out of the window.”
Golman also ridiculed claims by Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov that Russia was catching up with America. “On donkeys and mules or what?” he asked. He revealed his own pension payment was 4,800 roubles (approximately £47.50 or $61). While the average Russian pension is higher at about €300 (£256 or $328), the commentator stressed the bleakness of the situation regardless of the calculation.
He described the living conditions of Russian soldiers as distressing. “Sometimes their wives come up to me and swear I feel like crying,” he said, citing a salary of 50,000 roubles (approximately £495 or $637) in the Ministry of Emergency Situations. Golman contrasted this with American military logistics, openly praising the United States’ ability to provide its soldiers with entertainment, fast food, and decent living conditions even at forward operating posts. “Here’s a Russian soldier who on paper hates Washington praising American military logistics. How schizophrenic is this?” Artur Rehi observed.
Civilian Desperation Grows
The commentary also features a video of a Russian woman whose industrial plant was being evacuated for a second time. Her location was approximately 500 kilometres from Ukraine, yet she was experiencing the direct consequences of the war. “What a nightmare this is,” she said. “Why are we suffering?”
The woman articulated the unwritten social contract that has long underpinned Russian society. Citizens did not participate in democratic elections or challenge who ruled them, provided their lives continued to improve. “This deal has just been breached,” the transcript states. The woman called on authorities to “stop this war immediately. Enough already.”
Her public plea carries significant legal risk. Rehi notes that anti-war statements in Russia are a “ticket to jail” or substantial fines for discrediting the government or armed forces. The woman continued: “Enough. Do you want to destroy the last great plant? What are you trying to achieve by this? Why make so many people suffer?”
Fuel Crisis Engulfs Russia
The report also documents a worsening fuel shortage across Russia, driven by systematic Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries. The situation has escalated to open conflict at petrol stations, with citizens camping for days in hope of fuel deliveries.
In one instance, a man was observed with a full camping setup near a petrol station, including a thermos, playing cards, cigarettes, and plastic cups possibly containing vodka. “This is everything necessary to camp out near a gas station,” the video notes, identifying the white bread, ham, cheese, and pickles as a distinctly Russian arrangement.
When a fuel tanker finally arrived at a Lukoil station, campers initially rejoiced. “The gasoline was delivered to us by the gods. Thank you gods,” one man called to his friends. However, the situation quickly soured. Under government and local authority directives, some petrol stations no longer sell to the public. Fuel is reserved exclusively for holders of federal worker vouchers or business vouchers. The tanker driver informed the waiting crowd the delivery was not for them. “Imagine how angry you are. You have spent half a week here waiting for this and now they sell it to some corrupt police officer only,” one angry driver comlained.
Desperation has led to increasingly dangerous behaviour on the roads. Citizens are tracking and following fuel tankers, attempting to corner them and force them to stop. The report notes these tankers often supply strategic facilities such as factories or aviation plants rather than civilian petrol stations. In one extreme case, an intoxicated man boarded a fuel tanker, likened to a “Russian drunk Jack Sparrow,” in an apparent attempt to siphon fuel.
Where fuel remains available to civilians, violence has erupted. A woman was filmed eating sushi while casually documenting a “massive fight for the pumping station.” The video shows a compilation of physical confrontations, with people attacking each other after hours of waiting. Gender offers no protection, as the report notes Russia’s decriminalisation of domestic violence years ago has normalised physical altercations between men and women. “Everybody gets beat up in the gas stations. Gas station wars they call it now,” the video states.
Economic Paralysis
The fuel crisis is extracting a mounting economic toll. A Russian man reported living in his car for two days while he should have been working. He had previously claimed that Moscow still had petrol and people should come to the capital to fill up. A week later, he was stranded. “There are hundreds and thousands of people like that. And these are working people in Russia,” the video update noted. “Their boss says, ‘Get fuel. I don’t care. Get some fuel and come back.’ So they go and wait in a gas station for two days.”
The report estimates this represents “hundreds of billions of money not being made because the workforce is just waiting for gasoline.” It describes the situation as “the biggest thing ever for Russian workforce if working age men are not working.” Small businesses are dying out, leaving only government subsidised weapons, oil, and gas companies.
A Russian businesswoman was recorded at a petrol station as an employee announced there would be no fuel that day. “We live in the 21st century, the age of technology,” she said, though the video counters that “It’s Russia. They really don’t live in the 21st century.” She reported being unable to make urgent calls, run her business, or even drive home. “We literally can’t do anything,” she said.
Nizhnekamsk Refinery Struck
The most recent Ukrainian strike hit the Nizhnekamsk oil refinery, a massive facility processing 17 million tons of oil annually, located far to the east of Moscow. Ukrainian drones reportedly flew approximately 1,000 kilometres over enemy territory, flying low enough to hit treetops. “Everybody saw them, everybody filmed them, and nobody shot them down,” the video report stated. The drones struck the refinery, which Russian authorities characteristically claimed had “spontaneously combusted” or been hit by debris.
Air raid sirens at the facility reminded the narrator of repeated nights in Kyiv during Russian attacks. “There are people who live there, who have children, who have to go to kindergarten, who cannot sleep, who are crying and afraid and their core memories which the brain is developing at a young age will be these air raid sirens,” the report notes.
Footage from the refinery shows workers watching a Ukrainian drone glide peacefully in an S-pattern, attempting to evade nonexistent anti-aircraft fire. No air defences engaged the drone. When it finally dived into the target, many workers cheered and whistled as though watching an air show. The report notes many of these workers are immigrants from countries including India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, pointing out that Russia’s population includes 16 to 25 million Muslims, approximately 20 percent of the total.
Systemic Refinery Damage
The report provides an analysis explaining why even functioning Russian refineries are suffering. First, political pressure to maintain fuel supply forces surviving refineries to operate beyond normal parameters, increasing wear and causing breakdowns.
Second, the increased consumption of parts strains a supply chain already crippled by sanctions, as many components were manufactured overseas. The largest and most modern cracking units and distillation towers were built by European companies that no longer maintain them.
Third, emergency shutdowns triggered by approaching drones themselves damage refinery infrastructure, as distillation towers are designed for continuous operation and suffer harm when halted abruptly.
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