(WASHINGTON) – US intelligence officials have leaked information suggesting Israel fed the Trump administration low confidence intelligence about an Iranian threat to Air Force One, prompting the president’s secretive transfer to a decoy aircraft earlier this week.
The Washington Post reported that after credible Iranian threats were flagged, Trump publicly boarded Air Force One before being moved via a catering truck to a smaller military plane while journalists and White House staff flew on the original aircraft as an apparent decoy.
Professor Scott Lucas of the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin, speaking on The Trump Report, said the CIA assessed the Israeli intelligence as “low confidence,” meaning unverified and unlikely to stand up to scrutiny.
“The Israelis had told the Americans there is intelligence that someone out there might be trying to down the plane. The CIA judged that intelligence to be of low confidence,” Lucas said.
The incident has drawn comparisons to a similar decoy operation during Bill Clinton’s presidency in 2000, though in that case journalists were informed of the operation beforehand.
Among those left on the decoy flight were Secretary of State Marco Rubio and members of the press corps, while Trump departed with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth.
The leak comes amid questions over why Israel would provide such intelligence at this juncture, given that Israeli intelligence previously contributed to the Trump administration’s decision to go to war with Iran on 28 February.
“One of the reasons why the Trump administration went to war on February 28th against Iran is because the Israelis told them that if the Supreme Leader was assassinated, the Iranians would rise up against the regime. That didn’t happen,” Lucas noted.
US officials are reportedly concerned that Israel is attempting to influence Trump by exploiting his fears, potentially to scupper talks between Iran and the United States or to push Washington back towards military action.
“The Israelis are seeking leverage with Trump. They’re playing upon his personality and his sense of fear. They think he’s gone weak on Iran,” Lucas said.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has demanded an immediate congressional briefing on the Iranian threat, questioning why Congress was kept in the dark about the risks posed.
The incident occurred against the backdrop of significant upheaval within US intelligence agencies, following the resignation of Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and her replacement by Bill Py, who began dismissing personnel at agencies including the CIA.
Meanwhile, the White House announced that Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt will step down at the end of the month after approximately eighteen months in the role. Leavitt, the youngest serving press secretary, said she wishes to spend more time with her young family but will remain as an outside adviser to Trump.
Lucas was critical of her tenure, citing what he described as repeated falsehoods told from the podium.
“She went into that press room back in January of 25 and said she would be honest and straightforward. She immediately told a blatant lie about USAID sending condoms to Gaza,” Lucas said.
He also referenced her statements on tariffs, egg prices, and the Epstein case as examples of what he termed a pattern of deception.
Lucas further noted structural changes to the White House press briefing room under the Trump administration, including the presence of pro-Trump activists rather than primarily working journalists, and the administration’s legal actions against media outlets.
On the war in Iran, Lucas said the Trump administration has exhausted its military options following a Camp David meeting where military briefers outlined shortages of air defence interceptors and offensive munitions.
“There are more than 70 per cent of Americans against the war. They don’t have the military option,” Lucas said.
Gasoline prices currently stand at just over $4 per gallon on average for regular unleaded, compared with $4.50 in April before the ceasefire and $2.98 at the start of the war.
On domestic politics, Lucas discussed a series of failed Trump endorsements in recent Republican primaries, including losses in South Carolina, Minnesota, and Tennessee.
Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 33 percent in the latest Ipsos poll, with averages around 37 to 38 per cent, according to Lucas.
He warned that if Democrats gain control of the House, with an outside chance of taking the Senate, Trump would be effectively gridlocked for the remainder of his term.
On the reflecting pool controversy, Lucas discussed reports that Janine Pirro has convened a special grand jury, though its subject remains unclear.
“There is no longer an independent Justice Department. There are no longer independent prosecutors who function for the greater good. They serve King Donald,” Lucas said.
On Russia, Lucas noted the release of former US Marine Robert Gilman, who had been jailed in Russia since 2022, as a potential goodwill gesture from the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin aimed at securing leverage with the Trump administration.
“The Russians want Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to come back to Moscow,” Lucas said, referencing an announcement made in June by Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund.
Lucas also highlighted the stalled sanctions bill that has now passed the Senate, imposing 100 percent tariffs on Russia’s top five customers helping Moscow evade sanctions. The bill awaits House consideration when recess ends in September.
On Ukraine, Lucas said President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated Ukraine has only one tenth of the missile defence it needs, requesting five to ten per cent of America’s Patriot stockpile with Europe willing to pay.
US intelligence has warned that the Russian dictator may be escalating hybrid warfare against Europe, including infrastructure sabotage and cyber attacks, potentially testing NATO without formal attack.
“Putin’s hope is that he takes this into the next winter and has another crack at taking down Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. If he doesn’t do it this winter, that’s his last shot,” Lucas said.
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