(MOSCOW, RUSSIA) – A leaked internal document from Sberbank, Russia’s largest financial institution, estimates the probability of a Russian victory in the war against Ukraine at just 7%. The report, dated April 2026, has circulated widely across Russian social media and has been met with intense discussion among military experts and economists.
The assessment is based on confidential information believed to include data from the FSB and military sources. Sberbank analysts concluded that Russia has no realistic prospect of achieving its stated objectives in the conflict. The document also analysed alternative scenarios, including a frozen conflict and negotiations similar to the Korean model, but found that none would allow the Kremlin to achieve its aims.
The leak provides context for recent public statements by senior Russian financial figures. Sberbank CEO German Gref has openly criticised the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and has called for an end to the so-called special military operation. He stated at a financial forum that the greatest dream of every Russian bank CEO is for the conflict to end.
The head of Russia’s central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, has also spoken publicly about the need to end the military operation. Moscow’s mayor has similarly warned that he cannot see a future for the Russian Federation if it continues to pursue a war economy.
The financial strain is evident. In 2026, Russian banks closed 1,500 offices, with 40% of those closures belonging to Sberbank. This comes despite growing demand for physical banking services, driven by internet shutdowns and fears that Russian authorities may seize deposits to fund the war effort.
The federal budget deficit is reported to be significantly worse than the publicly acknowledged figure of 7.2 trillion rubles (approximately $80 billion or £62 billion). This financial pressure is forcing major institutions to commission independent intelligence assessments rather than rely on Kremlin briefings.
The report’s circulation has also explained the Kremlin’s nervousness regarding anti-war political movements. Even weak opposition parties have been barred, reflecting fears that the population increasingly recognises the futility of the conflict.
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