(WARSAW, POLAND) – CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow was likely a warning to the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin against further escalation, according to TVP World News Director Adam Jasser.
Speaking on News in Depth, Jasser said the simplest explanation for Ratcliffe’s unusual trip was that he delivered a message to Putin that the United States is watching closely.
“I think the simplest explanation is that Mr. Ratcliffe delivered some kind of a warning to Vladimir Putin that we’re following very closely what you’re doing and don’t do something silly like staging a provocation in the Baltic states,” Jasser said.
The visit came shortly after unprecedented and unannounced NATO manoeuvres over the Baltic states, which Jasser described as an even more significant warning to Russia.
The exercises involved American aircraft and military assets and were seen as a visible signal of the Alliance’s readiness and commitment to collective defence.
Jasser said the Americans deliberately publicised Ratcliffe’s visit through leaks to US media, suggesting the messaging was aimed at both Moscow and European allies.
He noted that the last publicly known CIA director visit to Moscow was by William Burns in November 2021, shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Jasser said the US intelligence community has good information about what is happening inside Russia, and that any signals of serious escalation would not be ignored.
“The war in Ukraine isn’t going his way. The domestic situation is getting more complicated. The Russians are tired of the war. The economy is not doing very well,” he said.
Jasser said Russians are increasingly asking what they achieved from the war effort, citing “hundreds of thousands of coffins.”
He warned that Putin may feel he has no choice but to escalate, describing the situation with a quote from Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski: “A sick man with a gun is still a man with a gun.”
Jasser said provocations are getting riskier, with the possibility of hybrid attacks causing deaths or “little green men” appearing in Baltic border towns.
He said Western democracies will not take on a nuclear power over a small incident, but that a red line exists somewhere, and the alliance has deliberately chosen not to clarify where it is.
Jasser suggested Ratcliffe may have delivered a message explaining where those red lines are.
He cautioned against over interpreting the meeting as a functioning back channel, noting that the US and Russian leaders already communicate directly.
President Donald Trump said after the visit that Putin would not attack NATO territory, adding: “I’ve had good talks with him. He’s not going to be attacking a NATO territory.”
Jasser said Trump is expressing a political hope that Putin understands the message delivered by Ratcliffe, who is known as a Russia hawk and pro Ukraine figure.
He said Trump faces a tough battle to retain Congress in November midterm elections, and the war in Ukraine remains an issue hanging over him.
Meanwhile, US Under Secretary of Defence Elbridge Colby was in Brussels discussing the Pentagon’s review of American forces in Europe.
Colby said the review is being conducted on a cost benefit basis, noting “huge momentum” in European defence spending, singling out Germany, Poland and Scandinavian countries.
Jasser said Colby’s visit was symbolically bad timing, coming just as Ratcliffe was in Moscow warning against escalation while Colby was discussing troop reductions.
He said the US Congress has expressed uneasiness about reducing the US commitment to NATO and has put limits on what the Pentagon can do.
Jasser said the NATO manoeuvres over the Baltic states were led by the United States, creating a contradiction with talk of reducing troop numbers.
“The main message to Moscow is we have planes in the air, we have troops on the ground still, and we’re an alliance,” he said.
Jasser described the situation as miscalculation rather than strategic ambiguity, noting that Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine quickly and withdraw America to the Western Hemisphere, but none of this has happened.
He said Polish Deputy Defence Minister Paweł Zalewski likely “misspoke” when he said Poland does not want nuclear warheads on its territory, adding that Poland has expressed interest in nuclear sharing arrangements.
On Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko’s visit to Moscow, Jasser said Putin may want to entangle Lukashenko further in his aggression, noting that the full scale invasion partly started from Belarusian territory.
He said Lukashenko has spent decades trying to play Moscow against the West without becoming totally dependent on Russia, and that Belarus could be used as a staging ground for any future escalation.
“Belarus unfortunately may be used by Putin if he chooses to make a serious escalation, whether Lukashenko likes it or not,” Jasser said.
He concluded by warning that Putin is desperate and “desperate people do silly things,” expressing hope that he does not cross any red lines.
The interview was conducted by TVP World’s News in Depth programme.
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