(WASHINGTON) – Russia has released former US Marine Robert Gilman, jailed since 2022, in what analysts describe as a calculated gesture aimed at securing leverage with the Trump administration as the Kremlin struggles on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Professor Scott Lucas of the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin, speaking on The Trump Report, drew direct parallels to North Korea’s release of American detainee Otto Warmbier in 2017, which preceded Trump’s summit with Kim Jong Un.
“Remember back in 2017, 2018 when it used to be little rocket man and fire and fury, and it all of a sudden changed. Remember that before Donald had his sit down with Kim Jong Un, what did the North Koreans do? They released an American who had been in detention,” Lucas said.
The analyst noted that Warmbier, a student who had been held in North Korea, died shortly after his release.
“The North Koreans did it. Now I’m not saying for sure this is why Gilman has been released, but let’s talk about where we are with the Ukraine Russia situation,” Lucas said.
The release comes as the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has failed to achieve significant gains on the front lines, having lost a small amount of territory last month.
“The Russians are not gaining that much on the front lines. This supposed breakthrough to take more Ukrainian territory is not materialising,” Lucas said.
“The Russians want Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to come back to Moscow,” Lucas added, referencing an announcement made in June by Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund.
Dmitriev, whom Lucas described as the man tasked by the Kremlin with manipulating Witkoff and Kushner, has been seeking to draw Trump’s inner circle back to Moscow as the Russian dictator pursues terms that would force Ukraine to surrender territory and remain weakened without effective security guarantees.
In response to battlefield setbacks, the Russian dictator has intensified air strikes on civilian areas and infrastructure in Ukraine, exploiting Kyiv’s vulnerability to ballistic missiles.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that Ukraine possesses only one tenth of the missile defence it requires, requesting between five and ten per cent of America’s Patriot stockpile, with Europe willing to pay for the systems.
US intelligence has warned that the Russian dictator may be escalating hybrid warfare against Europe, including infrastructure sabotage and cyber attacks, potentially testing NATO without formally attacking it.
Lucas said US intelligence agencies are publicising these assessments because they are engaged in an internal battle within the Trump administration over support for Ukraine.
“US intelligence knows this. Why are they coming out and telling the media that they’re now assessing that this is happening? Because they’re fighting the war within the Trump administration. You guys need to be backing Ukraine here. You need to be backing Europe,” Lucas said.
The sanctions bill, which had been stalled in Congress, has now passed the Senate following the death of Senator Lindsey Graham. The legislation imposes 100 per cent tariffs on Russia’s top five customers, countries helping Moscow evade sanctions. The bill awaits House consideration when recess ends in September.
Lucas said the Russian dictator is preparing for a final attempt to break Ukraine through the coming winter.
“I think Putin’s hope is that he takes this into the next winter and has another crack at taking down Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and freezes them out. If he doesn’t do it this winter coming up, that’s his last shot,” Lucas said.
The analyst warned that the coming months represent a critical window in the conflict.
“Russia is not winning at this point, but we have this window coming up going through the winter, which I think is the last one where someone’s going to try to force the other one out. Russia’s going to try to knock Ukraine out of the war. Ukraine’s going to hold out against it,” Lucas said.
The question, according to Lucas, is whether there are adults in the room in the United States who understand how high the stakes are.
“Russia hopes they won’t. And that’s why they’re using Robert Gilman as a potential ploy with real estate developer Steve Witkoff,” Lucas said.
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