(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Russia is shifting its military strategy towards targeting Ukraine’s economy and essential infrastructure as its battlefield advances slow, according to a senior reporter at the Kyiv Independent.
Francis Farrell, co-author of the weekly newsletter War Notes, said the conflict is entering a new phase resembling “total war”. The term, historically associated with the world wars of the 20th century, describes the mobilisation of all national resources and the targeting of an enemy’s economic capacity.
“We have seen attacks on the economy, whether it is Ukraine going after oil refineries and logistics hubs, and Russia responding in turn with attacks on Ukraine’s ports,” Farrell told DW News. He noted that Russia has struck petrol stations, supermarket chains and logistics warehouses.
The Ukrainian ports under attack are responsible for exporting grain to much of the Global South. Farrell said Russia may also move towards forced mobilisation within its own territory, something the Kremlin has so far avoided.
Russian advances on the frontline have slowed considerably compared to previous years. Ukraine has recaptured almost as much territory as Russia has taken in recent months. Ukrainian deep strikes on oil refineries have caused petrol shortages in Moscow and disrupted logistics to Crimea.
“These were all designed to hopefully push the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to the decision to maybe wind down the war because the costs were just getting too high,” Farrell said. “But unfortunately, we do see that he seems to be doubling down.”
The rate of civilian deaths in Ukraine has reached its highest level since the full scale invasion began in 2022. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly pleaded for more air defence systems.
Ukrainians remain united in their understanding that the only alternative to continued resistance is capitulation. “The only alternative is still going to be capitulation and even more disaster down the line,” Farrell said.
The frontline remains critical, with Russia continuing its failed attempts to capture the remainder of the Donbas region. Russian forces are losing upwards of a thousand soldiers per day. However, the conflict has evolved into what Farrell described as “almost a contest of wills”.
“A secure peace for Ukraine is not about retaking territory,” he said. “It is about breaking Russia’s conviction that it can break Ukraine.”
On Ukraine’s 35th Independence Day, President Zelenskyy delivered a defiant address to the nation. “We are not asking you to fight for us. Give Ukraine everything it needs to stop this war. To stop it faster than Putin can start the next one,” he said.
European leaders attended the ceremonies in Kyiv. France and the UK announced they would share technology to help Ukraine build long range cruise missiles. The announcement came at a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing, co-chaired by Britain’s new prime minister, Andy Burnham.
“Despite Russia’s outrageous threats to my country, we will continue our support for Ukraine’s defence,” Burnham said. “I know you need more help to protect your skies and your civilians.”
The Kremlin responded by claiming the increased support would “add fuel to the fire”.
DW correspondent Nick Connolly reported from Kyiv that the missile technology sharing relates to Storm Shadow cruise missiles, known as Scalp in France. Ukraine has used these missiles to destroy Russian command posts in occupied Crimea and weapons factories inside Russia.
“This shows quite how far Ukraine has come in terms of trust,” Connolly said. “Countries like the UK are willing to share some of their most valuable technology with Ukraine.”
However, Connolly noted that air defence remains the main priority in Kyiv. “In the last six months we have gone from a situation where most ballistic missiles, at least two thirds of them, were being shot down over Kyiv to basically none of them being shot down,” he said.
The US led peace talks appear to have stalled. The weekly toll of civilian deaths has reached its highest level since Russia’s full scale invasion. For many Ukrainians, Independence Day is less about the past than the uncertain future the country is fighting to secure.
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