(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Ukraine’s systematic campaign against Russian oil refineries is pushing Russia into its worst fuel crisis since the 1990s, with only 21 percent of Moscow service stations reported to have fuel available.
Russian refining figures for July 2026 fell to levels not seen since 2001, according to data from Bloomberg, with crude processing rates hitting multi-year lows amid repeated Ukrainian drone strikes.
The Perm refinery, located approximately 1,500 kilometres from Ukraine, was struck for the fifth time on 22nd August, according to reports. The facility, built in 1958, originally had a capacity of 260,000 barrels per day and was Russia’s eighth largest refinery.
Previous strikes on the Perm facility occurred on 29th April, 30th April, 8th May, 29th July and 22nd August.
Ukrainian forces have also struck the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery in Samara Oblast and an Ozon logistics hub in Chapayevsk using long-range FP-1 drones manufactured by Ukrainian company Fire Point.
The fuel crisis has spread to every region of Russia, with Moscow experiencing its eighth consecutive day of approximately 20 percent fuel availability at service stations.
Across Russia, only 29 percent of service stations have fuel available, according to data from the Russian application GD Benz, which motorists are using to locate supplies.
Some service stations are operating for only two or three hours per day, opening only after fuel deliveries arrive before closing again.
A service station employee in Moscow told motorists that forecasts are “really bad” and that conditions would continue through September at minimum.
Russian bloggers have accused the government and state media of concealing the scale of the crisis, with official broadcasts claiming no fuel shortage exists.
The Russian Orthodox Church has been deployed to discourage protests, with priests urging the population not to entertain “revolutionary thoughts” over petrol shortages.
One priest stated that those organising protests are “not people of God” and referenced a saint who was reportedly only angered by those raising their hands against state authority.
Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces have destroyed another six Russian vessels overnight, continuing the campaign against Russian maritime logistics in the Black Sea region.
The attack on the Great Ocean bulk carrier occurred near the Kerch Strait while the vessel was sailing to and from Russian ports.
Ukraine has now disabled approximately 90 percent of Russia’s grain export capacity over the past month and a half, according to the analysis.
Russian domestic wheat prices have fallen below the cost of production, with class 3 wheat down to 12,855 roubles (US$160, £125) per tonne and class 4 wheat at 11,525 roubles (US$144, £112) per tonne.
The Bank of Russia has reduced its physical gold holdings to 73.2 million ounces, the lowest level since January 2020, according to central bank data reported by Bloomberg.
The reported value of Russian central bank gold reserves has fallen by 33.7 billion US dollars since 1st January.
Five additional Russian regions have begun detaining men for forced conscription, expanding the programme before the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s scheduled elections.
State Duma candidate Nikolai Bondarenko from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation was arrested in Saratov, accused of displaying extremist symbols.
German intelligence agency BFW suspects Russia of hiding weapons on the outskirts of Berlin for future sabotage and assassination operations on German soil.
North Korea has reportedly supplied Russia with KN30 Hwasong-11C missiles carrying warheads of up to 2.5 tonnes, five times larger than typical Russian munitions.
Russian forces struck a shopping centre in Kryvyi Rih, the hometown of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on 22nd August, with over 110 people wounded and multiple deaths reported.
The attack occurred at approximately 4pm local time when the shopping centre was crowded with people, including teenagers.
Russian political commentator Alexei Chadayev stated that millions of Russians, if not the majority, are now calling for an end to the war.
The banned Yabloko political party had advocated freezing the conflict, which was sufficient for the Kremlin to ban it last week, according to the analysis.
Public sentiment polling by Russian pollster VTsIOM shows the vast majority of Russians now expect conditions to worsen further, with pessimism at levels not seen since the darkest days of COVID.
The analysis was presented by Jay in Kyiv, a YouTube channel covering developments in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
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