(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Ukraine’s ability to sustain and expand its campaign of long range airstrikes against Russian targets will be a decisive factor in the war’s outcome, according to military analysts. The strategy is heavily reliant on new technology, rapid innovation, and continued assistance from Western partners.
Military analyst Sean Bell explained that the race to develop and deploy longer range precision weaponry has become a defining feature of the current phase of the conflict. Ukraine’s capacity to strike deep inside Russian territory and occupied regions depends on its ability to field advanced missile systems and drone technology, much of it developed with Western technical support.
The contest between Ukrainian innovation and Russian defensive adaptations now shapes the operational tempo on both sides. Where Kyiv expands its reach, Moscow is forced to stretch its air defence assets across an ever widening area, creating vulnerabilities that Ukrainian planners are exploiting with increasing frequency.
Sustaining this missile race requires a steady supply of components, technical expertise, and munitions from allied nations. He noted that the side which maintains the technological and industrial edge in this contest is likely to dictate the war’s trajectory through 2026 and beyond.
Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted 24 of Russia’s 34 largest oil refineries, driving the country’s refining capacity to a 24 year low, according to military analyst Sean Bell. The strikes are part of a deliberate Ukrainian strategy to make the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin pay a prohibitive price for his invasion.
“Wars are won and lost in territory and there is a grinding war of attrition happening in the Donbas around Kostiantynivka where Russia is steadily advancing,” Bell said. He warned that Ukraine cannot afford to get trapped in that attritional fight. “That is a battle it would lose.”
Ukraine’s strategy is to force Russia to absorb unsustainable costs. “It is to make Russia pay a very high price for every pace, every step it takes forward, something it seems to be doing effectively,” Bell added. “However, you do not win a war by simply retreating from the battlefield. Ukraine has to find a way of taking the war better into Russia itself.”
At the start of the invasion, Ukrainian strikes into Russia were limited to roughly 20 miles, the maximum range of artillery. Western military assistance has since transformed that picture. “As the war has continued, the West has ramped up support and then weapons such as ATACMS missiles and from the UK’s perspective, Storm Shadow have enabled a much deeper strike potentially up to 300 miles,” Bell said. That expanded range has opened up a broad array of targets and brought the outskirts of Moscow within reach.
However, Russia’s vast geography demands even longer reach. “The West has capability to do that, but it is not got significant numbers, certainly not enough to help Ukraine,” Bell explained. “The only way Ukraine was going to be able to do that is to develop its own weapons. That is where weapons like the Flamingo missile and other long range drones have proven so effective.”
Ukraine has managed to incentivise its defence industrial base, Bell noted, singling out the Shakoon company, which is developing a whole family of both propeller powered and jet powered drones. This industrial mobilisation reflects a core strategic calculation. “Ukraine recognises in a David versus Goliath battle, it is the David. It cannot afford to get trapped in that war of attrition. It has got to leverage technology, particularly western technology, if it is to prevail.”
Bell described the current phase of the war as an arms race. “Russia was a slow starter for this, but they are catching up fast. Ukraine has to find a way of innovating and innovating faster than Russia if it is to prevail.”
On the defensive front, Ukraine has proven resilient against drone and cruise missile attacks through layered defences and fighter jet interceptions. Ballistic missiles remain the critical vulnerability. The heavy reliance on US Patriot systems has become a pressing concern because significant stocks have been expended in the Middle East, reducing supplies available to Ukraine. That has made cities like Kyiv and critical national infrastructure more vulnerable, something the Russian dictator has exploited.
Bell assessed that Ukraine is unlikely to develop its own Patriot system, noting that rebuilding American stockpiles will be the priority. However, a Ukrainian ballistic missile programme is feasible. “If Ukraine was able to develop its own ballistic missile, then potentially it could hold a lot more targets within Russia at risk. That is not an easy undertaking. However, Iran has managed to develop a ballistic missile programme, as has North Korea. So, it is very doable.”
A key advantage for Ukraine would be the ability to bypass lengthy Western testing and evaluation protocols. “The challenge for the West normally with these programmes is testing and evaluation adds lots of cost to the programme and time. That is not something Ukraine would have to do. They would be able to test these things in contact.”
Bell concluded with a strategic warning and a note of optimism. “As Sun Tzu famously said, opportunities multiply if they are seized. Russia is trying to drag Ukraine into a war of attrition. That is not something that Ukraine can prevail in. However, technology provides significant opportunity for Ukraine, potentially even changing the course of the war.”
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