(MOSCOW) – The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is preparing a new wave of mobilisation this autumn, not through a single public decree but as a stepped-up, hidden campaign, sources and analysis indicate.
The Russian army is shrinking, losing more men than it recruits. In half of the months of 2026, net personnel numbers have fallen due to frontline losses. This shortfall is the primary driver behind the Kremlin’s plans.
The signs are familiar. The Kremlin is aggressively denying any mobilisation plans. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov has dismissed reports as “yet another piece of Ukraine” information, while the Russian dictator himself has called speculation “complete nonsense.”
This pattern mirrors the prelude to the September 2022 mobilisation, which was also publicly denied until it was announced. The current denials are accompanied by a massive increase in online comments from Kremlin bots, a classic counter-information operation that precedes major actions.
Unlike 2022, when military commissariats relied on paper records, Russia has spent years digitalising its conscription system. The SIM cards and passports of every male citizen are now tied to a unified database accessible to the Ministry of Defence. This system allows for automatic restrictions, such as blocking bank accounts and seizing passports, for those who do not comply.
The mobilisation is already underway in a semi-covert form. Military commissariats are currently recruiting 800 to 1,000 men per day across Russia. This is the baseline, but central pressure on local authorities to fill quotas is increasing. These authorities are being pushed to recruit 1,200 to 1,500 men daily, using methods ranging from one-time payments in wealthier regions to outright coercion in others.
Footage circulating online shows police approaching men of military age in shopping centres and on the street, informing them they must report to the military commissariat. In some regions, police officers receive bonuses of hundreds of thousands of rubles (thousands of US dollars) for each new recruit they deliver, incentivising them to target anyone, including homeless or sick individuals.
The pressure tactics are psychological. Men are detained, threatened with the loss of their passports and bank accounts, and pressured to sign contracts. A common tactic is to claim a new mobilisation is imminent, encouraging men to sign up now for a cash bonus rather than be forcefully mobilised later for nothing.
The human impact is significant. In the last week of August alone, approximately 113,000 men, mostly of fighting age, left Russia for Georgia, creating massive queues at the single border crossing. Similar scenes have been reported at the border with Belarus, which is seen as a safer destination by some Russians, though it is a close ally of Moscow.
The Kremlin is reportedly preparing orders for regions to recruit up to 800,000 people. This will be achieved by detaining men under any pretext at work, on the street, or in educational institutions and forcing them to sign contracts. There will be no medical examination and minimal training, effectively creating cannon fodder.
This is a different kind of mobilisation from 2022. It is designed to be quieter, more administrative, and more effective, avoiding the public panic and mass exodus seen previously. The system is built to apply gradual pressure, a tactic that can yield tens of thousands of new recruits with only a small increase in coercion.
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