The true number of Russian soldiers killed since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine is approaching a quarter of a million, according to a dedicated BBC investigation. This figure, compiled from open-source data, sharply contrasts with official Kremlin statements and offers a grim insight into the human cost of the war for Russia.
The BBC’s Olga Ivshina, a senior correspondent with the BBC Russian Service, has devoted years to documenting Russian losses. Her team’s open-source database, which verifies deaths through official reports, social media and local news, has confirmed almost 246,000 names, though she admits the true figure is likely higher due to a processing backlog. “We have almost 250,000 names,” Ivshina said, noting that the count is based on confirmed identities, including date of birth, date of death and unit affiliation.
This methodical approach began when it became clear the Kremlin would not be transparent about its casualties. The last time Russia publicly acknowledged its losses was in September 2022, when its Ministry of Defence claimed fewer than 6,000 soldiers had been killed. At that time, Ivshina’s team had already documented more than 6,000 names, a figure that has since grown exponentially.
The investigation highlights a stark demographic disparity in the war’s toll. According to Ivshina’s analysis, the vast majority of casualties come from small towns, villages and economically disadvantaged regions, particularly in eastern Siberia. “If you are an average male in Moscow, your chances of dying in this war are 30 times less than the chances of an average man from the Buryati region,” she explained. This disparity reveals a conflict that is largely unnoticed by Russia’s urban elite but devastating for its poorer, rural communities.
The data also sheds light on why some Russians choose to fight. Ivshina recounted the story of a well-educated man in his 50s from Kazan, a father of three with a PhD, who joined the army to escape crippling debts. “If I go to the army, it’s a simple solution. Even if I get killed, they get so much money,” she recounted him saying. This, she argues, demonstrates that for many, the economic benefits for their families outweigh the risk of death.
The human cost is further compounded by the Kremlin’s recruitment of prisoners. Ivshina’s figures show at least 20,000 confirmed deaths among convicts recruited from prisons, many of whom were serving long sentences for violent crimes. Their deaths are often invisible to the broader Russian public.
While some Western intelligence estimates speak of up to 1.4 million combined casualties on both sides, Ivshina urges caution. She notes that such figures often count the same soldier multiple times, including for wounds, capture and disappearance. “It’s possible that they count one guy five times,” she said, citing a defected Russian medic who brought a list of 300,000 wounded soldiers, some of whom appeared on it up to 11 times after being repeatedly sent back to the front line.
Ivshina’s investigation also points to a flawed reporting chain within the Russian military. She suggests that information provided to the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is often distorted by optimism at each level of command, leading to unrealistic assessments. “It seems the people on the ground do provide realistic assessment but each level adds a bit more of optimism to the picture,” she said. This was evident in the early days of the invasion, which was built on false assumptions that Kyiv would fall in days and that Russian troops would be welcomed as liberators.
The scale of Russian losses has prompted comparisons to the United States’ experience in Vietnam, where approximately 58,000 US soldiers died over a decade. However, Ivshina argues the comparison is not entirely fair, as Russian society is more authoritarian and accustomed to hardship. “Russian society is used to suffering, used to hardships… They’re very resilient to bad news,” she concluded, suggesting that the Kremlin can continue to absorb these massive losses for the foreseeable future without facing significant domestic unrest.
This report is based on an interview with Olga Ivshina, senior correspondent with the BBC Russian Service, as featured on The Global Story.
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