(WARSAW) – Europe is increasing defence spending and taking greater responsibility for its security in response to US demands. However, questions remain over whether Washington will be satisfied if a rearmed Europe chooses not to buy American weapons.
“There is a certain paradox in US policy when it comes to security in Europe, because on the one hand, the Americans have been telling very consistently to Europeans that they need to take care of the continent’s security,” said TVP World’s News Director Adam Jasser.
Yet Jasser argues Washington remains wary of European defence autonomy. “I would say the Americans want to have cake and eat it. They want to disengage from Europe, but they want to have a say in how Europe is run. And they definitely do not want the Europeans to become completely independent when it comes to a broadly defined defence area,” Jasser said.
Poland, which on Wednesday signed a $4 billion defence loan agreement with the US, has maintained a particularly close defence relationship with Washington through large scale purchases of American weapons. The agreement brings total US loan support to Poland to $20 billion in recent years.
Poland is now the leader in security investment in Europe. The country spends 46.38 billion euros on defence, approximately $51 billion or £39.8 billion, representing almost 5% of its GDP. That is twice the amount invested in security in 2021.
However, industrial capacity constraints are limiting the US’s ability to provide weapons to allies. American manufacturers are struggling to replenish some of the missiles and anti-missile systems used in Iran and Ukraine. There have been reports of delays in deliveries of Patriot missiles and F-35 fighters.
“The top issue at the moment is the supply of certain types of weapons,” Jasser said. “Delivery matters and the question is how quickly can Americans scale up their armaments production to meet growing commitments to allies.”
Jasser noted that Poland has long maintained a close defence relationship with Washington, pointing to the 2003 Iraq War when Poland and other Central European countries backed Washington while Germany and France opposed the intervention.
“In some sense we’re going through the same motion again. The Trump administration perceives Central and Eastern Europe as more in line with America’s thinking, even though the differences on Russia sort of complicate matters right now,” Jasser said.
The US administration is no longer naive about the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s willingness to compromise, according to Jasser. “Putin believes he can outlast the West’s commitment to Ukraine. The Americans hope that mounting problems at home will compel him to find an exit,” he said.
Jasser added that Trump had expected Putin to act like a businessman. “Putin is not interested in business. Putin has this vision of Russia as an empire that should control half of Europe effectively,” he said.
Competition for weapons supplies is emerging between NATO rearmament and Ukraine’s battlefield requirements. “It is a compromise between the immediate needs of Ukraine which is under fire daily and people are dying, and then the Europeans and the Americans who need to look after their security,” Jasser said.
A piece of positive news is that Ukraine has agreed increased deliveries with a number of European countries for anti-missile systems. Everyone realises that the coming winter may be extremely hard for Ukraine.
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