(LONDON) – Russia is no longer a military superpower and its dictator Vladimir Putin continues the war in Ukraine solely for political survival, according to financier and Kremlin critic Bill Browder.
Browder said Putin has no intention of agreeing to a peace treaty or ceasefire with Ukraine. He argued that the Russian dictator appears weak, which in Russia is considered the ultimate political failure. Russia is a strongman state, and any strongman who appears weak risks being replaced by a more ruthless rival.
From Putin’s perspective, the only available option is escalation. This remains the case even if escalation is suicidal, harmful to the Russian economy, or leads to the deaths of tens of thousands more Russian soldiers. Browder said Putin has never been sincere about reaching a peace deal despite pressure from European, American and Ukrainian officials.
A peace deal would mean the return of approximately one million battle hardened soldiers to Russia. These men, described by Browder as murderous and psychopathic, would then pose a serious internal security threat. A peace deal would also invite scrutiny of the war’s original purpose. Russians would ask why the war was started, why the stated goals were not achieved, why 1.5 million young men were lost, and why the country has lost an estimated $1 trillion (€0.92 trillion or £0.79 trillion) in value.
Browder said Putin understands that any such reckoning would end badly for him. He argued that the Russian dictator launched the invasion of Ukraine in the first place purely for political survival. Having been in power for 22 years, Putin had failed to deliver on his promises to the Russian people. Most Russians remain poor and unhappy.
In Russia, the fall of a dictator typically results in prison, the seizure of assets and death. The war was therefore created as a foreign distraction to redirect public anger towards an external enemy.
A recent report in The Economist detailed Putin’s private fears of being hanged by the Russian people. Browder said this is significant because the Russian dictator has long cultivated an image of an alpha male leader. Publicly verbalising such weakness is dangerous in Russia’s political culture.
Browder dismissed the notion that Putin is solely focused on the Donbas region. The objective remains the complete capitulation of Ukraine as a sovereign state. Even if the Donbas were captured, which Browder said would not happen, the war would continue. He argued that even taking all of Ukraine would not stop Putin. He would then move into the Baltics or Poland.
The Russian dictator requires a permanent state of war. He must present himself as an expansionist imperialist leader whose country faces existential foreign threats that only he can defeat.
Browder also addressed Putin’s repeated nuclear threats. Since the war began, Moscow has issued warnings over the supply of tanks, jets and cruise missiles to Ukraine. Most recently, Russian officials made threats against the United Kingdom after Prime Minister Andy Burnham visited Ukraine and provided blueprints for cruise missile technology.
Browder said these threats should be ignored. Putin is crying wolf and never follows through. The more important development is Russia’s declining global status. Russia was once considered the world’s second most powerful military. It can no longer defeat a much weaker country with one tenth of its military resources.
Russia has also failed to protect its international allies. Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela was removed from power without Russian intervention. Bashar al Assad in Syria was not protected. Armenia was not defended against Azerbaijan. Putin has lost an estimated 1.5 million soldiers and has failed to achieve his objectives in Ukraine.
Browder said Russia’s economy is also deteriorating. The banking system is burdened with bad debts from the war. Inflation is severe and tax collection is insufficient. The budget deficit is significant and Russia cannot access international capital markets. Domestic borrowing has reached its limit, which has driven interest rates to extreme levels.
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