(MOSCOW) – Russia’s mobilisation machine has not stopped. It has merely become quieter. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his evening address on 28th September that Moscow has already begun further troop mobilisations, citing a report from Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (GUR).
“Today the GUR reported on the measures that Russia is planning in the future. In fact, the Russians have already begun additional mobilisation,” Zelenskyy said. “They are increasing the number of people they are recruiting using various methods.”
The figures expose a manpower black hole. Video evidence released by Ukraine indicates between 20,000 and 30,000 Russian soldiers are killed or wounded every month. Some of the wounded return to the front after a period of recovery, but many do not.
A soldier who has lost one or both legs is unlikely to take part in an assault operation again, though crutches have been seen near the front lines. Russia must therefore backfill tens of thousands of troops each month simply to keep its military at its current size, before any expansion.
The way Russia has largely done this is by persuading people to volunteer. The 2022 mobilisation forced 300,000 people into service. Since then, recruitment has technically been all volunteer. Some sign up because they believe in the cause.
Many more are what the Kremlin regards as the undesirables: people from poorer, less populated regions offered salaries four, five, or ten times what they could expect to earn day to day. For many families, it is a life changing amount of money.
However, there are growing indications that Russia is running out of the people it wants to fight this war. Russia is not running out of men. It is not running out of military aged males. It is running out of the people it prefers to send.
The prisons, which Russia famously emptied a few years ago, are no longer producing the same numbers. Prisoners are still entering the war zone, but the flow has slowed.
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