(CRIMEA, UKRAINE) – Ukraine is executing a systematic campaign to dismantle Russia’s air defence shield over occupied Crimea, methodically stripping away radar coverage and supply lines in what analysts describe as preparation for the operational isolation of the Kerch Bridge.
Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, the HUR, reports that its drone operators successfully struck key elements of Russia’s S-400 Triumf air defence network during a nighttime operation on 26 July. According to the HUR’s unmanned systems department, the strike destroyed two critical pieces of military hardware: an S-400 launcher and a 96L6 target acquisition radar.
The 96L6 radar operates as the eyes of the S-400 system. It operates in the S-band and can detect aerial targets up to 300 kilometres away while tracking up to 100 objects simultaneously. That capability is supposed to include low flying aircraft, drones, and high speed ballistic missiles. Taking out the radar leaves the rest of the battery effectively blind. The S-400 Triumf is Moscow’s premier long range air defence system, capable of engaging aircraft up to 400 kilometres out and intercepting ballistic threats at ranges of up to 60 kilometres.
Former British Military Intelligence officer and defence analyst Philip Ingram MBE stated the strike is not an isolated event. “It’s part of a broader methodical campaign,” he said. In recent days, Ukrainian forces have also hit a Russian drone control relay station, an energy facility belonging to Chornomornaftohaz in occupied Crimea, and conducted a long range strike against a German oil refinery, a critical fuel hub deep inside Russia powering Moscow’s war effort.
Ingram explained that an attempt to physically seize the Kerch Bridge with ground troops remains impossible given the front line is far to the north. Ukraine lacks amphibious capability. However, Western defence intelligence and military analysts point out that Ukraine is methodically creating a corridor of vulnerability by systematically knocking out S-400 radars, Pantsir systems, and local ferry supply lines around the Kerch Strait.
Without the S-400 umbrella operational, defending the Kerch Bridge against a massive synchronised assault using Storm Shadow or SCALP missiles, possibly ATACMS or other long range naval drones and missiles, becomes exceptionally harder for Moscow. “Ukraine isn’t just collecting tactical drone wins. They’re dismantling the shield around the Kerch Bridge piece by piece before launching what could be the definitive attempt to cut Crimea’s main supply artery for good,” Ingram said.
The supply arteries to the north have already been cut. Ferries operating under the Kerch Bridge have been destroyed. More than 150 ships attempting to resupply Crimean ports from the Sea of Azov and Black Sea have been disabled. “The final straw will be the Kerch Bridge and that has got a psychological impact as well as a military impact to Vladimir Putin,” Ingram noted.
Isolating Crimea will prevent its use as a permanent aircraft carrier and resupply hub for Russian operations into eastern Ukraine. It will also deliver a severe psychological blow to the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, who held his honeymoon there and maintains a dacha on the peninsula alongside many oligarchs. “The average wealthy Russian always enjoyed a holiday to Crimea. No more,” Ingram said, adding that Ukraine does not need to capture the peninsula, only keep it isolated as a sustained burden on Russian resources.
Shifting focus to Russia’s home soil, Ukraine is stepping up its deep strike campaign. A coordinated long range Ukrainian drone strike successfully detonated the fifth largest logistics hub belonging to Wildberries in Ryazan, approximately 185 kilometres southeast of Moscow. The hit was severe enough to cave in the facility’s roof, ignite a neighbouring Rosneft oil refinery, and trigger emergency evacuations across the sector.
Faced with Western sanctions, supply shortages, and bureaucratic delays in official defence procurement, Russian volunteer groups, military units, and private donors rely heavily on platforms like Wildberries to source equipment. Everything from commercially available FPV drone parts, micro electronics, and thermal optics to tactical boots, ballistic plates, and communication radios are purchased in bulk through these e-commerce hubs before being shipped directly to front line troops. Wildberries acts as a critical decentralised military supply system.
Through dismantling these regional distribution centres, Ukraine cuts off the flow of vital dual use gear long before it reaches the trenches. Ryazan is not an isolated incident. Ukrainian drone strikes have targeted Wildberries logistics centres in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and now a facility approximately 1,400 kilometres from the Ukrainian border.
“Wildberries is hugely in debt to the Russian banks because a lot of what it stores has been paid for by borrowed money. It is billions of dollars that we are seeing going up in smoke here and the Russian banks cannot afford to lose that sort of money,” Ingram said. He added that many Russian small businesses hold stock in Wildberries warehouses, stock that is not insured, meaning “there is a lot of little businesses going out of business across Russia.”
“This is bringing the war home and this is disrupting a vital supply line for Russian troops on the front line and Russian military capability. This is significant and we need to watch it very closely indeed,” Ingram concluded.
In forcing Russia to stretch its air defence assets thin, choosing between protecting frontline troop concentrations, oil refineries, or massive civilian military logistics hubs deep inside its own borders, Ukraine is creating structural friction throughout the Russian war effort.
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