(LONDON) – Russia is highly unlikely to use nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian drone attacks on its strategic bomber bases, despite Moscow’s persistent nuclear rhetoric, a leading British defence analyst has said.
Professor Michael Clarke, security and defence analyst, told Sky News on Wednesday 4th June 2025 that while the Kremlin continues to employ nuclear threats as psychological warfare, there are no physical indications that tactical nuclear weapons are being prepared for use.
“The Russians have shown no indication, any physical indication of bringing their tactical nuclear weapons forward or bringing any of the preparations together, which we would see because it would take some time,” Professor Clarke said during a live question and answer session.
Professor Clarke explained that even if Russian forces attempted to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukrainian troops, they would require between five and six Hiroshima sized bombs to destroy a single dispersed Ukrainian brigade of 5,000 troops.
“The taboo against nuclear use is very, very strong since the Second World War,” Professor Clarke stated. He added that while someone will eventually break this taboo in human history, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin “wants to go down in history as a great Russian leader” rather than “as the man who broke the taboo, the first man to use nuclear weapons in an aggressive mode.”
On the question of Western response, Professor Clarke noted that under the Biden administration, the answer was clear. General David Petraeus, former CIA director, had indicated that the United States would respond with massive conventional force, destroying the Black Sea fleet and attacking every base from which tactical nuclear weapons had been used.
However, Professor Clarke expressed doubt that the current Trump administration would respond similarly. “I don’t believe that Trump would initiate that sort of response because as everyone who knows him and knows his relationship with Russia, people like Fiona Hill, the British academic, she says he’s frightened of Putin, he admires Putin but he’s frightened of him.”
The analyst added that Trump is “very resistant to using American firepower in a strategic way” and that “the idea of using American firepower explicitly against Russia is almost completely off the table.”
Professor Clarke also noted that Russia would likely lose support from China and India if it used nuclear weapons, as this would be poorly received in the global south.
On chemical and biological weapons, Professor Clarke said Russia has already used CS gas on the battlefield, which is banned for military use, and that there have been credible accusations of sarin use, though he could not confirm specific instances.
Regarding the psychological effect of Ukrainian attacks on Putin, Professor Clarke said the Russian dictator had reportedly disappeared for 48 hours following the strikes on bomber bases. “These do affect him. They really do. Because the more audacious they are, the more humiliating it is for Russian defense forces.”
Professor Clarke referenced the Wagner Group mutiny in 2023, when Putin “went missing for days” and appeared “shaken” upon his return.
On the Kerch Bridge, which Ukraine has targeted for the third time, Professor Clarke said complete destruction is unlikely as the structure is 12 miles long, making it the longest bridge in Europe. However, he said Ukraine could continue damaging it to make it unviable for military supplies.
“The train line is what they’re really after because that’s what a lot of stuff goes,” Professor Clarke explained. The bridge, built in 2018 following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, is described as Putin’s “pride and joy.”
Professor Clarke compared Ukraine’s drone lorry operation, which released first person view drones from containers with retractable roofs, to the Israeli pager attack on Hezbollah in September 2024. He described both as “two of the big coup intelligence coups of modern times.”
Satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies and Capella Space has confirmed at least eight aircraft destroyed at the Blea airfield in Kursk, Siberia, consistent with Ukrainian claims. Ukrainian officials stated that 34 percent of Russia’s strategic bomber force had been destroyed, though this figure remains unverified.
Professor Clarke said the Institute for the Study of War has quoted Colonel Yuri Inhut stating that prior to the strike, 10 of Russia’s 19 TU160 bombers and 36 of 57 TU95 bombers were operational.
On Russia’s summer offensive, Professor Clarke said it appears to be “a rolling offensive” rather than a major strategic thrust. Russian forces are advancing slowly using small groups of “dispensable” troops, losing over one thousand men daily.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington has estimated total military casualties at approximately 1.4 million, with Russian losses at one million and Ukrainian losses at 400,000 killed and wounded.
Professor Clarke said Russia is recruiting between 1,500 and 2,000 soldiers daily, exceeding its loss rate of 1,300 per day. Recruits receive signing bonuses equivalent to approximately three or four times average pay, with families receiving death payments of around 19 million rubles, approximately £187,000 or $238,000.
On drone warfare, Professor Clarke noted that 70 percent of casualties are now caused by drones, describing the development as “completely changed the way that we fight.” He compared current drone technology to the V1 doodlebugs used by Germany against London in 1944.
Russia is reportedly producing 300 drones every three days, aiming for 500 daily, while Ukraine plans to manufacture 2.5 million drones annually.
Regarding UK defence, Professor Clarke said the strategic defence review indicates Britain must stop thinking of itself as being in “a period of prolonged peace.” He said Russia is already conducting cyber attacks and attacks on pipelines and cables against Britain, and the situation “could get a lot worse in the next two or three years.”
Professor Clarke recommended prioritising artificial intelligence and digital force structure over traditional military hardware, suggesting a combination of higher taxes, spending cuts and potentially increased borrowing to fund defence requirements.
The analyst suggested possible cuts in welfare and environmental spending, while restraining growth in health expenditure. Britain currently spends approximately £60 billion on defence compared to over £300 billion on health.
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