(TOKYO, JAPAN) – The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has reignited a decades-old territorial dispute with Japan over the Kuril Islands, a chain of strategic islands that has prevented Moscow and Tokyo from ever signing a formal peace treaty to end the Second World War. The provocation comes as Russia remains heavily committed to its war in Ukraine and faces growing economic strain.
Putin visited the Kuril Islands last week for the first time in over two decades, a move widely interpreted as a direct message to Japan. He followed the visit with statements declaring that Russia’s sovereignty over the islands is “undisputed” and that any Japanese claim constitutes an assertion of control over Russian territory. The language mirrors the justification used for the invasion of Ukraine.
Japan responded by summoning the Russian ambassador in Tokyo for a formal dressing down, calling the behaviour unacceptable. Russia retaliated by summoning the Japanese ambassador in Moscow. The diplomatic standoff marks the most serious deterioration in relations between the two nations in years.
The dispute dates to the final days of the Second World War. The Soviet Union, despite maintaining a non-aggression pact with Japan, invaded the Kuril Islands as the United States advanced towards the Japanese mainland. The Soviets expelled tens of thousands of Japanese residents from their homes and ancestral lands. Unlike territory occupied by American forces, which was ultimately returned to Japan, the Soviet-occupied islands remain under Russian control to this day.
The Japanese have never dropped their claims. The continued dispute serves as a warning signal against Russian aggression. Japanese diplomats view acquiescence as an invitation for further encroachment. The strategy reflects a deep historical understanding of Russian imperialism, forged through conflicts including the Russo-Japanese War and the Soviet betrayal at the end of the Second World War.
The strategic significance of the Kuril Islands extends beyond historical grievance. The island chain guards access to Russia’s entire Pacific coast, including its nuclear submarine fleet. The southernmost islands, which are the subject of the dispute with Japan, remain ice-free for much of the year and control the passages to Russia’s eastern seaboard. The waters around the islands also contain significant fishing resources and some of the largest oil deposits ever discovered.
Russia’s timing is puzzling. Japan recently changed its laws to allow weapons exports for the first time since the Second World War, but those laws specifically exclude countries currently at war. The Japanese military build-up has been driven primarily by concerns about Chinese aggression around Taiwan and the South China Sea, not by any threat to Russian control of the Kuril Islands.
Some analysts suggest the answer lies with China. Russia has become increasingly dependent on Chinese support to sustain its war in Ukraine. In exchange, Moscow has made concessions to Beijing that it resisted for decades. Joint infrastructure projects have been developed in Russia’s Far East, including the dredging of rivers to create a new trade route from China’s interior to the Pacific Ocean. This route would bypass traditional bottlenecks such as the Malacca Strait and the island chain around Taiwan.
For China, the Kuril Islands represent a critical chokepoint in this emerging trade strategy. The southern islands offer access to the open ocean without ice for most or all of the year. If China is to secure unfettered Pacific access through Russian territory, control or influence over these islands becomes essential.
Putin’s provocation of Japan may therefore be a case of the Russian dictator doing China’s bidding. The risk, however, is substantial. Japan could respond by altering its weapons export laws or finding loopholes to send military aid to Ukraine. South Korea has demonstrated how such legal frameworks can be navigated. Japan could also address Ukraine’s most pressing need: air defence systems and Patriot interceptors.
By opening an unnecessary conflict with Japan, Russia may ultimately strengthen Ukraine’s position. The Japanese have long understood that allowing Russian aggression to go unanswered invites further aggression. Their historical experience with the Soviet Union and modern Russia provides a clear framework for response.
The ball, as analysts note, is in Japan’s court. With Russia already stretched thin in Ukraine, Tokyo has an opportunity to call Moscow’s bluff. A strong Japanese response, including increased support for Ukraine, would likely force Russia to back down. The alternative, acquiescence, would simply invite the next provocation.
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