(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Ukraine has struck the facility responsible for producing Russian rockets used to launch satellites for the Kremlin’s planned Starlink alternative, dealing a potentially decisive blow to Russia’s space ambitions.
The strike, carried out using Flamingo cruise missiles, targeted the facility that manufactures the specific rockets required to place satellites into orbit for Project Rassvet, Russia’s attempt to replace the Starlink network it lost access to in February.
According to Ukrainian sources, the facility has been rendered inoperable, and Russia will not be producing new rockets capable of carrying satellite payloads in the near future. If confirmed, Russia’s space programme may be completely stalled.
The loss of Starlink access earlier this year was a turning point in the war. Russia overnight lost strategic capabilities that Ukraine retained, creating a structural advantage that Ukraine has been exploiting across Crimea, the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
Russia’s goal is to largely replace Starlink over Ukraine by the end of 2027. This would require approximately 300 satellites for the first operational run. Currently, Russia has only about 40 satellites in orbit, enough for just a couple of hours of connection per day, split into 10 to 15 minute intervals.
These brief connection windows are insufficient for any meaningful military operations. By the time a connection is established and a drone is launched, the satellite has passed and the connection is lost.
Russia has only three launch facilities across the entire country. One is leased from Kazakhstan, a relic of the Soviet era. The other two are located at higher latitudes necessary for launching the required satellites. Ukraine only needs to pressure these two facilities to prevent Russia from launching its network.
Beyond launch facilities, Russia’s satellite network requires ground stations to provide internet connectivity. These ground stations are vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes, unlike Ukraine’s Starlink ground systems, which are located in countries such as Poland that Russia has been unwilling to attack.
The structural advantage lies firmly with Ukraine. Russia cannot match Ukraine’s real time drone capabilities, cannot restore its satellite network under current pressure and cannot strike Ukraine’s supporting infrastructure without risking a broader conflict.
The situation represents a reversal of the earlier trend in the war, where Ukraine was unable to strike certain Russian targets. That dynamic has now shifted decisively in Ukraine’s favour.
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