(LONDON) – Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s use of the word “war” to describe the invasion of Ukraine signals a likely new wave of forced conscription following the Duma elections in September, according to a senior defence analyst. The admission has laid bare the depth of a manpower crisis that is forcing the Kremlin to rely on imported ballistic missiles from North Korea.
Speaking on the Frontline podcast, Major General Chip Chapman, a former British Army officer, said the shift in language, despite being politically significant for domestic audiences, indicates a preparation for further mobilisation. He noted that Ukraine’s primary weakness remains its limited manpower, a vulnerability the Kremlin is seeking to exploit by applying its own strength against that weakness.
“The probability of some sort of mobilisation after the Duma elections is bigger than it was two or three months ago,” Major General Chapman said, describing the potential news of a draft as “bad news” for the Russian people.
This demographic pressure on the Russian military is underscored by its increasing reliance on foreign munitions. The analyst noted that Russian forces have begun using a greater number of ballistic missiles supplied by North Korea, a development he suggested reveals the depletion of Russian domestic stocks.
While the accuracy of such missiles is questionable, Major General Chapman noted that the doctrine of overwhelming volume still provides a strategic benefit. This reliance highlights a coalition of pariah states supporting the Kremlin, including Iran, which initially provided Shahed-136 drones, and China, which geopolitical analysts believe does not wish to see a Russian defeat.
The analysis comes as the war on the ground remains largely a stalemate, with both sides making minor tactical gains. Ukraine recently announced the recapture of 745 square kilometres in the Alexandrika area, an operation partly enabled by its robust Starlink drone architecture.
In a bid to counter Ukraine’s technological advantage, Ukrainian forces executed a significant strike on the Progress Rocket and Space Centre in Samara, Russia, this week. The attack targeted a facility crucial for the development of the “Rassvet” satellite constellation, which the Kremlin aims to use to mirror the capabilities provided to Kyiv by Starlink.
“If Russia could get a constellation in the sky, the Rassvet satellites, to kind of mirror what Ukraine does with the Starlink setup, then that could be another thing which would seriously be a blow to Ukraine,” Major General Chapman said.
The discussion also addressed growing concerns regarding Russian military posturing against NATO. While dismissing the strategic significance of newly identified fixed drone launch sites, Major General Chapman advised Western nations to maintain a posture of deterrence. He assessed that while Russia will continue its campaign of hybrid warfare and sabotage, a direct conventional military strike on a NATO member is not imminent.
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