(LONDON) – Russian economic and strategic advisors recognise that the war in Ukraine cannot continue indefinitely, yet the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin understands that his own survival may depend on perpetual conflict, a former British Army commander has warned. Retired Major General Chip Chapman, speaking on the Frontline podcast produced by Times Radio, said the Kremlin faces an impossible dilemma as the war enters its 1,637th day.
“If he doesn’t keep perpetual war going to achieve his maximalist objectives, Putin is finished,” Chapman said. “From a noiah perspective, I think Putin does believe that it is in his vital interests, as he sees it in the imperial mindset, to still conquer all of Ukraine.”
Chapman noted that the war has now come home to Moscow, with the Russian capital experiencing significant drone attacks in recent days. Russian authorities claim more than 600 drones were fired from Ukraine at Moscow overnight, with over 180 reportedly destroyed. However, Chapman questioned the lack of visible damage footage, suggesting Russian officials may be exaggerating the scale of attacks.
The analyst drew on classical military philosophy to assess the situation. He cited Sun Tzu’s principle that knowing your enemy is essential, noting that Russia’s so-called special military operation was meant to last just 10 days but has now exceeded the length of the Second World War. “Russia didn’t know its enemy,” he said.
Chapman also referenced Clausewitz, arguing that the Russian dictator fundamentally misunderstood the kind of war he was embarking upon. “He got that wrong in the same way that Trump has probably got the Iranians wrong with the decapitation leading to capitulation,” Chapman added.
The former general identified several indicators of growing internal pressure on the Kremlin. He pointed to a report in the Moscow Times citing a major Russian banker who stated that Russia would not win a war of attrition as long as the West remained mobilised. The banker has reportedly been dismissed since the comments became public.
Chapman highlighted shifting public opinion in Russia, citing figures showing only 8% of Russians view the operation as highly successful, while 34% express strong support for the war. He noted that 22% refuse to answer surveys, fearing their responses could be recorded.
The analyst also pointed to growing unrest in Russia’s peripheral regions, including Buryatia, Sakha, Siberia and Bashkortostan, where residents are demanding explanations for petrol price rises, population losses and budget squeezes. “They’re the ones who suffer disproportionately,” Chapman said.
Chapman warned that a potential mobilisation after Russia’s Duma elections in September could be on the horizon. “The bad news for the Russian people would be potentially a mobilisation,” he said. He added that the probability of some form of conscription drive is “bigger than it was two or three months ago.”
On the military front, Chapman described the tactical situation as an “eroding stalemate” with neither side able to concentrate sufficient force for a decisive action. He praised Ukraine’s recent strike on the Progress rocket and space centre in Samara, describing it as “very significant” in preventing Russia from developing a satellite constellation to rival Starlink.
The analyst addressed concerns about Russian hybrid warfare against NATO, noting that while fixed drone launch sites identified by NATO intelligence are puzzling, the alliance must treat each day as its “last day of relative peace.” He dismissed the likelihood of an overt Russian strike on NATO territory but warned that hybrid operations would continue.
Regarding Russian threats to target UK drone manufacturing facilities, Chapman said such rhetoric is part of Moscow’s escalation strategy. “Russia will always use rhetoric as one of the forms of escalation,” he said, adding that proxy forces may be used to attack capabilities supporting Ukraine.
Chapman concluded on a cautiously optimistic note, hoping that 2027 might bring a moderation of the conflict. “The best way for that to continue is that Russia loses the war against Ukraine and Ukraine prevails,” he said.
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