(LONDON, UK) – Ukrainian forces have intensified a systematic campaign targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure, striking refineries and shadow fleet vessels to cripple the Kremlin’s war economy, according to financial analyst and political activist Sir William Browder.
Speaking to Frontline, produced by Times Radio, Browder stated the strategy has exposed a fundamental weakness of Russia, forcing the Russian dictator to publicly admit problems for the first time in his 26 year rule.
“I’ve never seen him, in all the time Putin has been in power, show this kind of weakness,” Browder said. “It’s significant. It’s very significant that he’s saying that and doing that and it shows that he’s found himself backed into a corner.”
The Ukrainian military has struck at least 90 ships in recent days, including 12 Russian oil tankers, a tugboat and a dry loader in the Sea of Azov. Ukraine claims these vessels form part of the Russian shadow fleet used to evade sanctions.
Browder explained the logic behind the operations, stating Ukraine has identified Russia’s fundamental vulnerability as its vast geography. Russia lacks the air defence to protect anything other than perhaps the Kremlin and Putin’s private residence, he argued.
“The Ukrainians have come up with this very ingenious strategy, which is just to look at what the economic pressure points are for Russia. And the economic pressure points are oil, and then systematically start to destroy those pressure points,” Browder said.
Ukrainian drones have hit refineries as far as Alms in central Siberia, a ten hour flight from the Ukrainian border. Refineries in the Baltic, the Black Sea and across Russian territory have also been targeted.
The strikes are causing tangible fuel shortages across Russia. Browder described scenes of citizens standing in line and engaging in fist fights at petrol stations. He noted reports that Russia may soon run out of good quality gasoline for cars, forcing the use of low grade fuel that will destroy engines in vehicles manufactured after 2015.
“Now every Russian has to say, is this war making sense for us? Practically, does this war make sense for us?” Browder stated. “Why do we need some sliver of eastern Donbas? How does that change our lives?”
Despite the mounting pressure, Browder cautioned against premature celebration. He warned the Russian dictator does not react to humiliation and may instead order a brutal attack on Ukrainian civilians as retaliation.
“Putin is not a guy who reacts to humiliation. My prediction is that he’ll then try to do something horribly brutal to Ukrainians, a terrible attack on civilians,” he said.
At the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Russia’s equivalent of Davos, attendees witnessed an image of black smoke rising on the horizon from a burning refinery. Browder described the symbolism as unconcealable, noting the Kremlin’s propaganda machine can no longer deny the reality of the war’s consequences.
The Russian dictator recently admitted in a televised interview that Russia was having problems. Browder described this admission as one of the most unusual things he had witnessed in 17 years of conflict with the man.
“He always says the opposite of the truth. The fact that he had to admit it really means that it’s obviously something affecting Russians,” Browder said.
A leaked trove of direct messages from Telegram belonging to leading media personality Zenya Soapchack revealed the struggle within Russian state media to report the situation. The messages showed pressure from the Kremlin and censors, with employees asking how they could continue to lie.
On the economic front, the Omsk refinery alone is responsible for 8 percent of Russia’s refined products and is reported to be operating at significantly reduced capacity. Russia is now forced to import fuel and diesel from other countries, Browder noted.
The strikes are also having a military impact. Russian troops occupying Crimea cannot be resupplied with fuel and other materials because they are being cut off.
“You know, Ukraine is hitting economic targets in Russia. Russia is hitting civilians in Ukraine. That’s what’s going on,” Browder said.
Regarding air defence, US President Donald Trump promised licensing for Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles during the NATO summit in Anchorage earlier this week. Browder welcomed the development but urged caution, stating that moving from a licence to actual missiles on the battlefield is a long process, likely taking a year. He noted the French have also signed a deal to supply their air defence product, which is slightly inferior to Patriots.
“The Ukrainians are very good at short circuiting long processes because their survival depends on it,” he said.
Russia continues to respond to setbacks by bombing civilians, a tactic Browder said has been employed for decades from Chechnya to Syria and Soviet Afghanistan. “They just go kill civilians. It’s just a way to brutalise people. This is the first victim of that that’s actually able to fight back.”
On the question of whether the Russian dictator will lean more heavily on human wave tactics and nuclear sabre rattling, Browder confirmed nuclear threats worked well during the Biden administration when Washington restricted Ukraine from hitting targets inside Russia. That dynamic changed under Trump, who cut off military aid, meaning the Americans could not place conditions on Ukraine.
Browder assessed the situation as futile for the Russian dictator. “He’s not going to end up getting Ukraine. He’s going to lose a lot more soldiers. A lot more of his economy is going to be destroyed and dismantled.”
However, he emphasised that nobody should underestimate the man’s ability to ignore the death and pain of his own people. “He’s a person who absolutely under no circumstances will compromise, give up or accept humiliation.”
The Czech president Petr Pavel warned Ukraine has only two months before the Russian dictator escalates the war, possibly ordering general mobilisation after elections in September. Browder agreed escalation is inevitable but questioned the timing.
He explained the Russian leadership has steadfastly avoided mass mobilisation because it would spark anger among a population that has so far been insulated from the conflict. If young men from major cities are conscripted, borders would need to be closed and the internet has already been restricted to prevent organisation against the government.
“This is Putin’s worst nightmare really. He could have never imagined the situation getting so bad. He thought that with Donald Trump in the White House, Donald Trump effectively partnering with him in his efforts to get Ukraine to surrender, his situation would improve. But it turns out it hasn’t,” Browder said.
Russia will continue to move towards the North Korean model of isolation and self sacrifice in an absurd foreign adventure, he predicted.
On the vulnerability of the dictator’s inner circle, Browder dismissed the idea of a coup from loyalists, noting anyone who challenges him goes the way of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner chief whose aircraft was bombed by Russian security services. The real risk, he argued, is a disorganised popular uprising.
“There might be a moment where people are more angry than scared. And that’s the fear of every dictator,” he said, citing examples from Egypt’s Arab Spring to Ukraine’s ouster of Yanukovych. “He can kill Alexei Navalny or Boris Nemtsov, but he can’t kill a million people marching on Red Square.”
On international dynamics, Politico reported that during the NATO summit, President Zelensky learned from European leaders that China had urged Russia not to use nuclear weapons in an ultimatum like form. Browder said China is a crucial part of the Russian dictator’s situation, providing weapons and economic support. China has made clear from day one it does not want nuclear weapons used.
“Putin probably would have used a nuclear weapon if China hadn’t been there telling them not to,” he stated.
Browder concluded the Russian dictator will continue to do whatever he can short of nuclear war to make life miserable for Ukrainians, possibly testing NATO guarantees in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland to see how strong the alliance truly is.
The full interview can be viewed on the Frontline YouTube channel.
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