(KYIV) – The Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s repeated claims that Moscow does not threaten Europe are a smokescreen for active military preparations, according to journalist Ivan Yakovina. Speaking on a live broadcast, Yakovina said the assurances echo the Kremlin’s denials before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“The same thing happened in late 2021 when the Americans came and said, ‘We know you are going to attack Ukraine.’ Putin and all his minions repeated, ‘No, we are not.’ We all know how that ended,” Yakovina said. He noted the revival of the Leningrad Military District as evidence of infrastructure being prepared for a potential offensive against European countries.
Yakovina suggested the Kremlin’s calculation is that Europe is far less prepared for war and less willing to accept sacrifices than Ukraine. He argued that Moscow hopes to fracture European unity, with individual nations potentially saying, “You sort it out yourselves, we don’t want to get involved.”
The analyst believes Putin’s goal is to force Europe to abandon its support for Ukraine. “He has military force in the form of long-range drones. I think a strike by a thousand Shaheds on Lithuania or Latvia would be enough. For small Baltic states, this would be a massive crisis,” he said, predicting panic and chaos.
Yakovina argues this would be a tactic to compel the European Union to halt all aid to Ukraine. “The European Union would likely agree, because Europeans are more important to them than Ukrainians,” he stated, describing the logic he attributes to the Kremlin. He also noted that some figures around Putin are advocating for even more extreme measures, including nuclear strikes on aid hubs.
When asked why Putin does not accept the peace proposals reportedly being floated by Donald Trump’s associates, Yakovina said the Russian dictator’s motivations have shifted beyond financial gain. “Putin wants to conquer Ukraine. That is his main goal. He believes Ukraine, in its current form, poses a threat to Russia’s existence,” Yakovina explained, referencing a 2021 article by Putin. “For him, even the collapse of the Russian economy is an acceptable price. He wants a grand conquest to enter history as a great victor.”
On the visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Yakovina speculated that the Americans aimed to signal they possess secret information about the true state of Russia’s economy and military. “It had to be the chief spy, arriving with a folder to show Putin, ‘We know your economy is bad, and we know you know,'” he said, adding that Putin reportedly avoided a face-to-face meeting.
Yakovina linked this to the pending Graham-Blumenthal sanctions package, which he said is designed to hit buyers of Russian oil, particularly India. “This will be a big problem for the Russian budget,” he noted. He described a recent phone call between Trump and Putin as likely initiated by Moscow to complain about pressure from Ratcliffe and others, but said the call has not halted the sanctions bill’s progress.
The analyst also addressed the reported attempt to attack a plane carrying Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, calling it part of Russia’s new strategy of full-scale terror. “There are no more rules. Putin will start deliberately hitting residential buildings to sow fear and discontent,” he warned, drawing a parallel to the 1999 apartment bombings in Russia.
Yakovina accused Russia of aerial terrorism, citing the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, an Azerbaijani Airbus, and the plane carrying Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. He said Russia’s strikes on Kyiv’s civilian airports before a visit by Trump’s envoys were further evidence of this.
On the political situation in Germany, Yakovina said he is certain the far-right AfD party is closely linked to the Kremlin, with some staff and officials directly receiving money from Moscow. He framed this as part of a broader strategy to weaken European support for Ukraine.
“The main problem for Russia is that the Ukrainian economy has remained resilient,” Yakovina stated. “The Kremlin’s main hope was that it would collapse quickly. Now, serious problems are emerging in the Russian economy itself—a huge budget deficit and rising inflation.” He argued that Putin’s primary goal is to cut off Western aid to Ukraine by any means necessary, including provocations against Baltic states.
Yakovina said the Kremlin’s key tool of influence in Europe is fear. “He intimidates people, and it works. People in Europe want to live in peace. When he says, ‘If you don’t submit, I guarantee you war and economic crisis,’ they get scared. Then parties like AfD say, ‘We can save you, we will restore relations with Russia.’ And people vote for them,” he explained.
Responding to a news alert about a Russian strike on a residential building in Odesa, Yakovina said it proved his point. “I guarantee you, Putin will deliberately strike residential buildings. He sees that strikes on warehouses and military units are not breaking the will of the Ukrainian people. So he will hit homes, while pro-Russian forces claim, ‘See what the Ukrainian government has brought you. If they had agreed to Putin’s terms, this would have stopped.’ It is exactly what happened in Moscow in 1999,” he said.
On the military technology race, Yakovina acknowledged that Russia is adapting quickly and developing its drone industry. He said Ukraine’s problem is its inability to scale up production due to a lack of funds and the vulnerability of its factories to ballistic missile strikes. “Ukraine is at a disadvantage, but it has Europe. Europe should be a reliable rear, producing drones and missiles, but it refuses to do so,” he said. He warned that if Europe does not change its position, Russian strikes will eventually target Europe itself.
Finally, Yakovina commented on the existential threat posed by artificial intelligence, referencing the possibility that a country nearing the creation of superintelligence could be subject to a pre-emptive nuclear strike. “This is not science fiction; it is a severe reality,” he said, recommending viewers watch an interview with AI and cybersecurity expert Roman Yampolsky on the channel. He described the emergence of superintelligence as being akin to an alien invasion, where a far more advanced civilisation appears with unpredictable and likely catastrophic consequences for humanity.
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