(KYIV, UKRAINE) – Ukraine’s long range strike campaign against Russian oil refineries has reduced Russia’s refining capacity to roughly 50 percent of its pre-war levels, according to a chemical engineer with 14 years of experience at major Russian refineries. The assessment comes as the Institute for the Study of War warns that the Russian military could conduct air, missile or drone strikes, or a limited ground incursion, against one or more Baltic states to test NATO’s resolve to invoke Article 5.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also announced that intelligence assessments indicate Russia’s plan includes strikes with drones and cruise missiles on countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland. Meanwhile, the Lindsey Graham sanctions bill has passed Congress and now awaits Donald Trump’s signature to become law. The bill would grant the US president the power to enact tariffs of up to 100 percent on the top five global purchasers of Russian fossil fuels.
Ukraine continues to enforce its own long range sanctions package on Russian oil and gas facilities despite being asked by Donald Trump not to. The cumulative effects of these strikes are becoming increasingly severe. William Theil, a chemical engineer with over 35 years of experience, 14 of which were spent at major refineries in Russia, said the strikes have evolved significantly since they began in late 2023.
“The thing that characterises these strikes from Ukraine’s side is they are happening at larger scale and they are more precise in their targeting and the scale of them has got bigger,” Mr Theil said. He noted that in 2023, perhaps one drone would make it through to target. By 2026, Ukraine is getting several drones through to target, hitting specific portions of refineries that cause more damage and larger sympathetic fires.
The effects are also emerging more quickly. In 2024, it took about three months to see major effects. In 2025, it took about six weeks. In 2026, major effects began appearing in less than three weeks. Rationing and long queues at petrol stations are now reported in major Russian cities.
Mr Theil estimates that Russian refining capacity is now about 50 percent of what it was at the beginning of the war. He tracks 38 major refineries in Russia, and at least half of them require some level of repair. “Normally Russia would do maybe two or three major repair campaigns called turnaround and inspection every year,” he said. “But imagine trying to do 20 in a year.”
The most vulnerable points in a refinery are the distillation columns. Most Russian refineries have between two and five complete distillation chains. Ukraine has become more precise in targeting the lower sections of these columns, causing them to burst and create pool fires that inflict greater damage and keep units offline for longer. Ukraine has also targeted hydrotreaters, which remove sulphur from jet fuel, diesel and gasoline. Many have now been struck, reducing the quality of fuel Russia is allowed to sell.
Mr Theil noted that many of the higher order processes in modern refineries are subject to intellectual property controls and use specialised catalysts and equipment. Once destroyed, these effects are effectively permanent for the duration of the war. Russia’s ability to repair its refineries is further hampered by a shortage of skilled labour. Many skilled tradespeople who arrived in Russia in early 2024 and 2025 were forced into military contracts.
Russia’s efforts to entice major international oil companies back to the country are unlikely to succeed. Mr Theil said insiders in the oil and gas industry believe it will be multiple generations before any major refining and marketing company returns. Shell had assets worth approximately $32 billion (GBP 25.4 billion) stripped from it, with Russia offering around $1 billion (GBP 795 million) in compensation. Similar treatment was meted out to ExxonMobil.
“Once bitten, twice shy,” Mr Theil said. “Those companies had difficulties being enticed into Russia in the first place, had much of their assets and control of those companies stripped away from them over time through normal machinations of the Russian bureaucracy.”
On Donald Trump’s recent claims that Ukraine is to blame for rising diesel prices, Mr Theil pointed to comments from the heads of Chevron and Exxon, who warned of a coming crisis two days ago without mentioning Ukraine at all. They focused only on the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea closure by Houthi rebels. He noted that in 2024, there was zero change in the price of gasoline and diesel in America coinciding with the strikes in Ukraine. The same was true in 2025, when the price of diesel actually fell slightly.
“The refinery strikes started in 2023,” Mr Theil said. “There’s no such thing as a diesel refinery. There’s just crude oil refineries. You’re not targeting a diesel refinery in particular.” He added that the recent spike in diesel prices only began after the United States started its optional war in Iran.
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