(KYIV, UKRAINE) – The Kremlin’s narrative of military success is diverging sharply from the reality of marginal, high-cost advances on the ground, a leading security analyst has stated. As Russian forces edge forward at a rate barely exceeding a kilometre a day, Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign has “kicked up a gear,” striking logistics hubs and economic targets deep inside Russia.
Jimmy Rushton, a Kyiv-based foreign policy and security analyst for the Kyiv Independent, told Times Radio’s Frontline podcast that while Moscow claims progress, its forces have made no operationally significant gains in recent months. “So is Russia advancing in some directions? Yes, very very slowly. Is it paying a huge price, both on the battlefield and at home? Yes. So the Kremlin’s lines are very, very much divergent from reality in my opinion,” Rushton stated.
The grinding Russian summer offensive has captured limited territory, particularly around the city of Selydove, but at a staggering human cost. According to Ukrainian estimates, between 35,000 and 40,000 Russian soldiers are permanently lost each month, a figure encompassing those killed in action, taken as prisoners of war, or suffering severe wounds. “They’re taking small amounts of territory, but they’re paying a huge price for it,” Rushton confirmed.
Simultaneously, Ukrainian forces are systematically targeting the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s war machine far beyond the front lines. Recent strikes have hit “Wildberries logistics centres,” Russia’s equivalent of Amazon, alongside continuing attacks on oil refineries and export infrastructure. These deep strikes are part of a deliberate strategy to degrade Russia’s capacity to wage war. Analyst Rushton confirmed the operational aim, noting, “When we were driving through the east, we saw these defensive lines, very, very well constructed… essentially the logic behind these defences are you slow the Russians down and you give the Ukrainian drones time to work on them.”
This tactic of “trading space for time” relies on fortified lines featuring massive anti-tank ditches, barbed wire, and concrete structures, built far behind the current front as a contingency against potential breakthroughs. Cities like Kharkiv are now encircled by such defences. The approach facilitates the primary instrument of destruction on the modern battlefield: the drone. Rushton explained that drones now constitute approximately 80 percent of all casualties, dethroning conventional tube artillery as the decisive factor in engagements. Small arms combat typically occurs only after drone-led defensive plans fail.
Concurrently, Ukrainian forces are advancing in the southern Zaporizhzhia region along the banks of the Dnipro River. The operational-level strikes are impacting Russian logistics, with sources in Ukraine’s military suggesting Russian brigades have cut diesel use by 20 to 30 percent and are pushing command centres further back from the front line, out of drone range.
The political war for influence in Washington remains critical. Rushton acknowledged the controversial engagement of a right-wing American influencer by Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Following a visit to Kyiv, where she met the chief rabbi and acknowledged being deceived by Russian propaganda, the influencer reportedly played a part in arranging a subsequent visit by Trump envoys. “What do you have to lose by playing nice with Trump? Well, nothing but maybe a little bit of dignity. And when you’re fighting an existential war, losing a little bit of your dignity is the last thing that you should worry about,” Rushton said.
Be First to Comment