(LONDON) – Russian forces have failed to capture the key Donbas city of Kostyantynivka and are unlikely to achieve their 2026 objective of seizing Ukraine’s fortress belt, according to a senior British military analyst.
Major General Chip Chapman, a former British military adviser to US Central Command, said the city remains contested and its capture, which would open the southern approach to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, “is not occurring.” Speaking to Times Radio’s Frontline programme, he predicted the fortress belt would still be under discussion “in another year’s time” unless Russia’s economy collapses or an internal coup takes place.
The assessment comes as Russian losses in July reportedly reached 42,860, the highest monthly figure this year, according to Ukrainian estimates. Russia is currently recruiting approximately 27,000 contract soldiers per month, creating a significant deficit. “They’re not running out of men. They’re running out of cheap men,” Maj. Gen. Chapman said.
Maj. Gen. Chapman cast doubt on recent US intelligence reports suggesting Russia could test NATO with a limited ground incursion as early as autumn. He described the reports as likely stemming from “misinterpreted statements” and “opportunist amplification both by Western media and for the Russians for their narrative framing.” He noted the original source could not be traced to confirmed US intelligence.
However, he said the threat of hybrid attacks remains high. The UK’s Intelligence and Security Committee recently classified state based threats as “very high,” citing Russian sabotage campaigns across Europe, including the prosecution of three Bulgarians acting on Moscow’s behalf in March 2025. He identified five elements of ongoing Russian hybrid warfare: deniable attacks, information operations, proxy forces, economic coercion and territorial encroachment.
Two recent incidents highlight the pattern. A Russian ballistic missile landed in Poland on 30 July, prompting Polish F-16 fighters to scramble. A drone incident at Leipzig airport, a NATO logistics hub, is also suspected to be a hybrid attack, though attribution remains unconfirmed.
Maj. Gen. Chapman expressed concern about a recent YouGov poll showing only six per cent of Britons would fight for the UK in the event of an invasion. “It’s not armies that fight wars. It’s nations that fight wars,” he said, adding that Russian information operations are “hacking the minds of the west.”
On the air war, Maj. Gen. Chapman said Russia currently holds an advantage. Ukraine’s interceptor supplies have seen a threefold decrease compared to 2025. Russia is assessed to be capable of producing 700 Iskander ballistic missiles per year, alongside 480 S-300 and S-400 missiles and approximately 50 Kinzhal missiles, supplemented by North Korean batteries. Ukrainian cities continue to face severe bombardment with ballistic missile interceptor rates at roughly 15 per cent.
President Donald Trump had suggested at the NATO summit that licences might be provided for Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missiles domestically. Maj. Gen. Chapman said pressure from American industrial and military circles over intellectual property and security concerns made domestic production unlikely, though manufacturing in third party European countries remained possible.
Ukraine’s deep strike campaign against Russian energy and logistics infrastructure continues. A refinery in Yaroslavl, north of Moscow, was hit on Thursday. Maj. Gen. Chapman said the developing FP-9 drone, if ready by autumn, “will absolutely bring a devastating fight potentially to Moscow” and could serve as a deterrent against further Russian missile strikes.
He noted the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has fallen from 80 percent in January 2026 to 66 percent in July, though this remains roughly double Trump’s current rating. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev recently told the Russian dictator the war must end, a development Maj. Gen. Chapman described as significant.
The analyst said Russia’s grand strategic objectives remain unchanged from those identified during the 2018 Skripal case: regaining lost territory and spheres of influence, dividing and deterring NATO, and dividing and weakening the EU. The Russian dictator still seeks “capitulation from Ukraine,” he said, and Russian advances remain “glacial,” with no operational breakthrough achieved.
Content sourced from Frontline with Kate Gerbeau, Philip Ingram and Louis Sykes, produced by Times Radio.
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