(MOSCOW, RUSSIA) – A sustained Ukrainian campaign targeting Russian oil refineries is severely disrupting domestic fuel supplies, forcing prices up and reducing the Kremlin’s ability to fund its war effort.
Since the turn of the year, Ukraine has dramatically intensified attacks on Russia’s oil refining capacity, striking deep inside Russian territory. A recent attack on a facility in Nizhnekamsk in the Tatarstan region reportedly killed 13 people and is part of a deliberate strategy, acknowledged by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to reduce Russia’s capacity to finance the conflict.
Currently, 27 refineries across Russia are operating at reduced capacity due to the strikes. The geographical reach of the attacks is significant, with facilities hit as far as 1,000 kilometres from the Ukrainian front line in Nizhnekamsk, over 2,000 kilometres away in Antipinsky, and 2,500 kilometres distant in Omsk. This demonstrates Ukraine’s growing ability to strike deep behind enemy lines using long range drones and missiles.
The frequency of attacks has escalated sharply. In the last three months alone there have been at least 10 attacks per month, bringing the total for the year to 76 and counting, putting 2026 on course to eclipse the more than 100 attacks recorded last year.
The impact on ordinary Russians is already significant. Queues for petrol in Moscow were filmed in June, with motorists facing dramatically higher prices for petrol and diesel. Fuel prices have risen by more than 15 percent for both petrol and diesel, with a sharp increase in the last three months as attacks intensified. This price spike is larger than that experienced last year.
The reduction in refining output is substantial. In January, less than one million barrels a day of refining capacity was offline. By August, that figure had surged to more than three million barrels a day, representing over 40 percent of total Russian refining capacity.
However, the refinery attacks do not tell the whole story. While domestic production of petrol and diesel is drying up, Russia continues to pump and export crude oil, largely through its shadow fleet of tankers. These vessels have been filmed serving Chinese and Indian markets. Demand for Russian oil had been slowing, but that changed following US actions. After the United States attacked Iran, pushing up global oil prices, President Donald Trump suspended sanctions on Russian oil in an attempt to bring prices back down, a move unlikely to be lost on the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
This has created a divergence in Russia’s crucial exports. Crude oil exports have risen between 10 percent and 40 percent this year, while exports of refined products such as diesel and petrol have slumped by around 60 percent in recent months.
The net impact is that Russia’s energy revenues are falling. Energy revenues this year, while boosted briefly by the Iran attacks, are now declining. They remain above last year’s lows but are below the levels of the previous three years since the full scale invasion of Ukraine began.
That is Ukraine’s goal: to cut the revenue funding Russia’s war machine. Energy revenues consistently account for 25 to 30 percent of the Russian federal budget, a figure that is now falling just as the Kremlin is having to spend more on sustaining the war. Attacks on refineries, such as one in Moscow in June, are spectacular and violent, but their real power may be as an economic weapon, among the most potent Ukraine has against its invader. (Source: Sky News)
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