(LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM) – Russian forces have suffered significant operational setbacks on the Kinburn Spit and around the Fortress Belt, with approximately 2,500 troops now at risk of collapse due to Ukrainian fire control over logistics lines, according to former British Army Major General Chip Chapman.
Speaking on the Frontline podcast, Chapman said Ukrainian drone and artillery control over Russian lines of communication has left the forces on the Kinburn Spit in a precarious position.
“The Kinburn Spit of course is a funny bit of ground really because the clues in the name, spit, where again because of fire control, drone and artillery control really of the logistic lines of communications, it looks like 2,500 Russians seem to be in a world of hurt, unsuppliable, which means they may well collapse,” Chapman said.
Lyman Operation
Chapman said the Ukrainian operation in the Lyman region is significant because it buys more time for the fortress cities that sit at the northern end towards Sloviansk, approximately 10 to 15 kilometres away.
Elements of the Russian 144th Motor Rifle Division appear to be facing encirclement. Even if they avoid being trapped, they will be forced to withdraw and reconfigure their lines of operation, which will be difficult at this time of year due to the loss of canopy cover as autumn approaches.
“Their ability to maneuver or do infiltration operations in the future in the drone kill zone will be impeded. So that buys more time I think from the north for Ukraine in the fortress cities,” Chapman said.
Alexandrivka Operation
Chapman referenced the earlier Ukrainian operation at Alexandrivka, south of Sloviansk, which cleared Russian forces from the southern pivot of the fortress cities and eliminated Russia’s operational objective of continuing advances in Dnipropetrovsk during 2026.
“Both of those are pretty good stabilising operations for 2026 in the fortress belt. So the Russians have a miscellaneous F failure for what they’ve done so far there,” Chapman said.
Russian Casualties
The interview took place on day 1,652 of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to Ukrainian figures cited by Chapman, Russian casualties have reached 1,489,640 as of 1st September 2026, with 42,020 killed or wounded in August alone.
August was the second worst month for Russian losses this year, following July.
“Any normal nation, any democratic nation, unless it is absolutely a vital interest bought into by the population, existential for survival, would generally not be able to sustain those sorts of losses,” Chapman said.
Russian Strategy
Chapman said Russia’s grand strategic objective remains unchanged: to regain lost territory and spheres of influence and to wipe out the sovereignty of Ukraine.
He described Russia as a “revanchist imperial power” under the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
Ukrainian Airspace Warning
Chapman addressed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent warning to international airlines about the dangers of flying over Russian airspace, describing it as having three purposes.
Firstly, Western airlines have been sanctioned by Russia and cannot transit Russian airspace anyway, so the warning is not aimed at them.
Secondly, the warning targets Middle Eastern carriers such as Qatar Airways, Etihad and Emirates, which continue to operate into Moscow. If their calculus can be altered through safety concerns, this would further isolate Russia.
Thirdly, the warning aims to instil dread in the Russian population, making them afraid to book flights or visit airports. This creates a psychological effect, reminding Russians that the war was supposed to be over within three to ten days of the special military operation.
US Political Situation
Chapman noted that the US House of Representatives has returned from recess and will consider the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026, which passed the Senate before the break. The key questions are whether it will be fast-tracked, amended or stalled, and what presidential waiver authority will be attached.
He referenced a Russian bank assessment suggesting a 35 per cent probability that Trump will offer some form of deal to both sides, but one that would not be credible for Ukraine because it would involve removal of troops from the Donbas, limiting Ukrainian forces to 600,000 personnel and barring NATO membership while giving Russia sanctions relief.
Russian Hybrid Operations
Chapman said the threat from Russian hybrid operations is not increasing; it has always been there. He noted that the head of MI5, Ken McCallum, stated in October 2025 that the UK faces a new era of security risks and a rapidly intensifying wave of state-based threats, with 35 percent of MI5’s work now directed against such threats.
He said Russia has generally used “violence as a service” by outsourcing attacks to disposable individuals recruited via Telegram or Snapchat, providing deniability. The Leipzig incident was unusual because Russian fingerprints were clearly on the device.
Response to Russian Aggression
Chapman said the German diplomatic response has been measured and proportionate, and will be expanded upon by the EU this week with a collective and unified response.
He warned against self-deterrence and appeasement.
“Let’s be clear, the strategic objective of Putin in doing these things is to make sure that the west doesn’t aid Ukraine because that is his theory of victory, that we will tire of the war in Ukraine or be too scared and therefore by appeasement or by some sort of self-censorship, self-deterrence and by hesitation that allows Russia to win. We mustn’t allow that to happen,” Chapman said.
The interview was conducted by Philip Ingram on the Frontline podcast, produced by Times Radio.
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