(BAMAKO, MALI) – Mali’s military government is facing a deepening security crisis as jihadist groups and separatist Tuareg rebels have launched coordinated offensives across the country, despite the presence of Russian mercenaries deployed to support the junta.
Vladimir Putin’s forces, now operating as Africa Corps following the rebranding of the Wagner Group, have proven unable to contain the escalating violence. Major attacks in April 2026 included strikes on the capital Bamako and a military garrison town where junta leader Assimi Goïta resides.
Mali’s Defence Minister Sadio Camara was killed when jihadists targeted his home. Goïta himself disappeared for several days following the attacks, with his first public image showing him meeting Russian officials, signalling that Moscow remains his key strategic partner.
The alliance between Goïta and Russia has developed into what appears to be a personal friendship. However, the relationship has not delivered the security Mali’s junta desperately needs.
The Sahel region has become the world’s worst affected area for terrorism, surpassing the Middle East in terror related deaths. The al Qaida affiliate JNIM has entrenched itself across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, creating an interconnected conflict zone.
Hundreds of thousands of Malians have fled to neighbouring countries or been internally displaced. Since 2023, more people have been killed by Malian forces and Russian mercenaries than by jihadist groups, according to reports.
Mali’s turn towards Russia followed the expulsion of French and UN forces after growing public rejection of their presence. French air forces had mistakenly attacked a wedding, killing at least 19 civilians, fuelling anti French sentiment.
Goïta’s options are limited. Analysts suggest his choices are to remain in power, flee or end up dead. Military solutions alone have not tackled Mali’s underlying problems, which include climate change, drought and deep rooted governance failures.
Russia’s interest in Mali extends beyond military support. By working with military juntas after coups, Russia demonstrates it is not isolated on the world stage despite its war in Ukraine. Mali has paid for Russian services, but the returns have been poor.
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