(SARATOV, RUSSIA) – Ukrainian drones struck a major Russian oil refinery and a warehouse in the Saratov region overnight, according to reports from the Kyiv Independent.
The Rosneft-owned refinery, which has an annual processing capacity of approximately 4.8 million metric tonnes of crude oil, was hit along with an Ozon warehouse, sparking fires at both locations. The full extent of the damage remains unclear.
The attack comes as Western officials confirmed that Russian casualty rates are at their highest level in 16 months, with more troops killed than at any previous point in the conflict. The war has now lasted 1,660 days, exceeding Russia’s participation in both the First and Second World Wars.
In a separate briefing, Western officials underscored the proliferation of jet-powered drones being deployed by Russian forces. According to figures provided, 350 such drones were launched in June this year, rising to 1,500 in July and nearly 2,800 in August. Officials warned the trend is set to continue, complicating efforts by Ukraine’s mobile fire groups to intercept them.
The officials also said Russia is increasingly open about its intentions to freeze civilians this winter.
Lieutenant General E. Vashchenko, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, told The Times in his first interview with international media that Russia is recruiting roughly 1,000 people per day, sometimes as many as 1,200, but that daily casualties are substantially higher. He claimed that across one recent week, there was a consistent 60 percent death rate among Russian forces, which he described as unparalleled in modern military history. For comparison, just over 16 percent of US casualties during the Vietnam War were deaths.
Vashchenko said the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin will exhaust Russia’s ability to wage war by 2028 if military and economic losses continue at their current rate. He added that Russian troop morale is very low, saying: “Nobody wants to fight.”
Air Chief Marshall Sir Richard Knighton, chief of the defence staff in London, said defence intelligence has confirmed half a million Russian troops are dead. Of those, between 1.4 and 1.5 million casualties have been sustained in order to gain just 2 percent of Ukraine’s territory since January 2023. He described the numbers as illustrating “the senseless and futile waste of human life for such little progress and against such an illegitimate aim.”
Western officials said there is no shift in Putin’s mindset and that there remains a very long way to go before he will compromise on his key aims. They noted some indications that Russian elites are recognising the impact of the war on their own prosperity, but it is unclear whether Putin is hearing that or how much influence they can exert. Officials also pointed to more elite debate spilling into the open, partly due to the economic cost and the war coming home to Russians.
Russia’s national wealth fund is down 60 percent on its pre-2022 level. If Moscow does nothing to change taxation or spending, there is only about a year of federal spending left in the budget or in that wealth fund. Russia could choose to freeze the bank accounts of private individuals as an alternative measure.
Meanwhile, renewed raids have been reported on the Russian port cities of Sochi and Krasnodar in the past 48 hours, with more fires reportedly spotted there.
On the frontline, reports of Ukrainian counterattacks northeast of Lyman in Donetsk oblast continue, though the picture remains murky. The Institute for the Study of War and Deep State are hesitant to update battlefield maps until more is known. Some reports claim the Russian salient north of Lyman has completely collapsed, with Ukrainian forces conducting mopping up operations and Russian units in disarray. However,
Russian military bloggers, while acknowledging that something is happening, do not depict such a dramatic situation. One blogger cited by the ISW claims Russian forces still hold positions in southern Lyman. There is evidence that Russian bloggers have been told not to discuss what is unfolding. The agency releasing frontline footage was not specified in the source material.
In diplomatic developments, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Canada for talks with Prime Minister Mark Carney. Canada pledged an aid package worth 350 million Canadian dollars (approximately 260 million US dollars or 200 million pounds sterling) to help Kyiv purchase air defence interceptors. The two leaders also signed a 100-year agreement pledging closer cooperation in defence, energy and trade.
Carney said Canada and Ukraine are forging a long-term partnership to jointly produce uncrewed systems, counter-drone technologies and priority munitions, combining Ukraine’s battlefield experience with Canadian manufacturing, software and artificial intelligence. The two countries finalised an agreement to deliver critical air defence interceptors through the United States jumpstart mechanism. Carney also said Canada aims to ramp up drone production to produce millions within the next two years, with a third going to Ukraine. Canada is also preparing a new sanctions package aimed at limiting Russia’s production of ballistic missiles.
In West Africa, a Telegraph investigation by Rozina Sabur and Ben Farmer revealed that terrorism is spreading across the region with Moscow’s assistance. Affiliates of al-Qaeda and Islamic State have established a foothold. The Wagner Group played up rifts with former colonial power France, leading Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to tilt towards Moscow for assistance. Yet despite the Kremlin’s promises of military assistance, local militaries and their Russian mercenary backers have suffered major defeats.
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